颱風行徑數值預報實驗

An Experiment in Numerical Prediction of Typhoon Movement

張鳳嬌(Fong-Chiau Chang)

《大氣科學》 5卷2期 (1978/11) Pp. 33-43

摘要

在四層斜壓非絕熱準地轉模式中，以駛引法研討颱風IRIS（1973年8月）及颱風WILDA（1970年8月）之行徑。文中列出露點低降值對颱風IRIS（1973年8月13日1200 GMT）預報路徑之影響，颱風IRIS（1973年8月14日1200 GMT）各層預報結果及颱風WILDA（1970年8月12日1200 GMT）700MB駛流場預報結果。實驗結果顯示：①潛熱釋放影響位移方向之預測。②駛引法所預測北向位移之大小較實測小。③比較各駛流層預報結果，700MB在位移方向上之預報較佳。

並列摘要

Using a four level baroclinic diabatic model, the numerical forecasts over the period of 72-hrs of typhoon IRIS (Aug. 1973) and WILDA (Aug. 1970) movements are examined by steering method. The effect of dew-point depression on typhoon IRIS (Aug. 13, 1973) movement, the comparison of prediction for typhoon IRIS (Aug. 14, 1973) movement with 300, 500, 700 and 900mb steering levels, respectively and the result of prediction for typhoon WILDA (Aug. 12, 1970) movement with 700mb steering level are presented.The results of numerical experiments show that the selection of 700mb steering level for prediction is in better agreement with actual direction of typhoon movement than all the other steering levels. The results also show the predicted speed by steering method is smaller than the actual speed and the effect of released latent heat is important for the prediction of typhoon movement in direction.