台灣地區鋒面雷雨之客觀預報研究

An Objective Method for the Predictionof Frontal Thunderstorm in Taiman Amea

童茂祥(M. S. Tung) ； 張利雄(L. A. Chang)

《大氣科學》 9卷1期 (1982/05) Pp. 147-157

摘要

本文乃將有利於台灣地區春季鋒面雷雨發生之各個氣象條件，如垂直潛位不穩定性，大規模水汽輻合量，中對流層之垂直運動及邊界層之水汽含量等有效參數，組合成為一有用之預報指數，作為本地區十二小時至二十四小時之雷雨客觀預報。個案試驗分析結果顯示此種指數之變化與鋒面雷雨之發生具有密切之相關，此說明有效計算決定上述有用參數，將可作為本地區例行短期雷雨預報之有力參考。

並列摘要

Favorable meteorological conditions have been parameterized and combined to form an effective index for the prediction of occurrence of frontal thunderstorms in Taiwan area during spring season. Parameters used include the degree of potentiaI instability, the large-scale moisture convergence, the vertical motion in mid-troposphere and the moisture content in the planetary boundary layer. Examination through case studies indicates that the predictive index can be useful in the objective prediction of thunderstorm during the routine weather forecast when a handy program to determine these relevant parameters is constructed.