臺灣地區梅雨期豪雨客觀預報之研究

本研究首先利用1975－1984年十年中台灣各地區四月二十日起至六月三十日間雨量資料，統計七個預報區域中個別之豪雨日數。再就此期間豪雨個案在五個及以上者，利用其鄰近之探空測站資料及導算資料23項，以相關分析法篩選預報因子，各預報因子與豪雨之相關係數必須在0.3及以上。最後，利用逐步複廻歸法以0000Z資料建立24小時雨量預報模式，以1200Z資料建立12小時預報模式。各預報模式中預報因子之條件值均經以散佈圖方式定出，使預報作業簡捷化。除了澎湖地區外，台灣北部、中部、南部及東南部地區均含部分300公尺以上山地測站，我們嘗試增建平地區域預報模式。在七個24小時預報模式中，有三個模式之最後相關係數超過0.5，其中一個達到0.801。在八個12小時預報模式中，有五個超過0.5，其中有三個超過0.6，最高者達到0.855。

關鍵字

梅雨期豪雨；客觀預報

並列摘要

Days with rainfall of or over 130 mm are treated as torrential-rain days in Taiwan. Almost every year, Mei-yu fronts will bring torrential rain to Taiwan especially in May and June.Torrential-rain days in each of the seven forecast areas for Taiwan between May and June in the years of 1975-1984 were calculated. Area cases of five or more in the mentioned ten years are of our interest. Correlation coefficients between those cases and 23 elements of their relevant soundings and derived values were also calculated. Elements with correlation coefficient over 0.3 were chosen as the predictors. Finally, we set up the 24-hour quantitative forecast models based on the 0000Z data, and the 12-hour forecast models based on the 1200Z data by using the Stepwise Regressive Method.To simplify the forecast procedures, we decided all of the conditional values of the predictors for each of the forecast models by using the scatter diagrams.Except the Peng-hu area, there are mountain stations with height over 300 m in the Northern, Central, Southern and the South-eastern areas. We tried to build up forecast models for plain areas.Among the seven 24-hour forecast models, there are three models having the final correlation coefficient over 0.5, and the highest is 0.801. Among the eight 12-hour forecast models, there are five models having the final correlation coefficient over 0.5, three of them over 0.6 and the highest is 0.855.

並列關鍵字

Mei-Yu ； Heavy Rainfall ； objective forecast

國際替代計量

臺灣地區梅雨期豪雨客觀預報之研究

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