- 期刊
TAMEX期間大雨預報校驗
Evaluations of Heavy Rainfall Predictions during TAMEX
摘要
本文針對1987年台灣地區中尺度實驗（Taiwan Area Mesoscale Experiment，簡稱TAMEX）期間，三個不同單位：中央氣象預報中心（文中簡稱CWB）、TAMEX預報中心（TAMEX Forecast Center，簡稱TFC）及TAMEX的實驗預報組（Experimental Forecast Group，簡稱EFG）所用之大雨預報參數檢查表，加以比較和校驗。分別對各單位選取之大雨預報參數，重新訂定各項檢查方法，對1987年5、6月實際天氣逐項檢查，並進行各種分析評估，以瞭解各預報參數對大雨之預報能力，最後綜合整理出一組共7項最為重要的大雨預報參數，以供預報梅雨期大雨發生之參考。
並列摘要
In May and June (Mei-Yu season) of 1987, Taiwan Area Mesoscale Experiment (TAMEX) has been successfully carried out through a US-ROC cooperative research project. During that period, there were three independent forecast groups, including the Forecast Center of the Center Weather Bureau (CWB), TAMEX Forecast Center (TFC), and TAMEX Experimental Forecast Group (EFG). In this study, we first examined the criteria of their forecast parameters and re-defined them if necessary. Each parameter was then re-calculated and evaluated against precipitation every day in TAMEX period. Seven statistically significant predictors were selected for the prediction of heavy rainfall in Taiwan.
延伸閱讀
- 邱俊穎、謝嘉聲、黃宗仁、葉堃生、管立豪、胡植慶（2019）。合成孔徑雷達影像於颱風豪雨後淹水之偵測。航測及遙測學刊，24(4)，211-222。https://doi.org/10.6574/JPRS.201912_24(4).0001
- 薛聖儒（2022）。極端降雨事件下利用時間序列模擬大規模崩塌潛勢區之地下水位變化輔助決策者發布警戒值〔碩士論文，國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU202203778
- 曲克恭、任立渝（1986）。梅雨季發生大雨之綜觀預報法。大氣科學，14(1)，17-32。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=02540002-198609-201404160013-201404160013-17-32
- 蔡明達、陳萬金、汪建良（2008）。Using Rain Type Classification Data for Improving the Accuracy of Satellite Rainfall Estimation over Land。大氣科學，36(1)，1-19。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=02540002-200803-36-1-1-19-a
- 吳書幃（2007）。Application of Real Time Rainfall Data to Inundation Forecasting〔碩士論文，國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2007.00115