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台灣地區現階段豪(大)雨預報能力

On the Forecast Skill of Heavy Rainfall in Taiwan

摘要


本文為探討和評估中央氣象局之豪(大)雨預報能力,特以1977~1989年間氣象局所發佈的非颱風豪(大)雨特報和颱風警報期間豪(大)雨預報,依(1)正確百分法(Percentage correct)或成功PC值法,(2)TS得分(Threat Score),(3)前估(Prefigurance),(4)後符(Postagreement)等四種方法進行評估,結果顯示氣象局在未來改進豪(大)雨預報能力方面,急需藉重於TAMEX後續研究成果之注入,1992年的即時預報實驗計畫將為改進豪(大)雨預報之重大措施。

關鍵字

正確百分法 前估 後符 TS得分 預報能力

並列摘要


The main purpose of this paper is to assess the current forecast capabilities of heavy rainfall events by the Central Weather Bureau. Data for both the typhoon and non-typhoon events in the period of 1977-1989 were used. The methods employed included (1) Percentage Correct, (2) Threat Score, (3) Prefigurance and (4) Postagreement. Results suggest that the follow-up applied research of the TAMEX Project is instrumental to improve the forecasting skill of heavy rainfall. The 1992 TAMEX forecast Exercise appears to be an important measure in this matter.

被引用紀錄


魏智航(2015)。梅雨季弱綜觀強迫下臺灣西南部沿海清晨對流發展之個案診斷分析研究〔碩士論文,國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2015.01963
龔楚媖(2010)。氣候概念模式於梅雨定量降雨預報之評估與分析〔碩士論文,國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2010.02106
余文雄(2014)。基隆河員山子上游雨量與啟動分洪之系集預測模式〔碩士論文,國立中央大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=U0031-0412201512013095

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