全球氣候變遷之不確定性：對流層內臭氧與懸浮微粒的影響

The Uncertainties Associated with the Global Climate Change: The Effects of Tropospheric Ozone and Aerosols

柳中明(Chung-Ming Liu)

《大氣科學》 22卷4期 (1994/12) Pp. 523-544

摘要

本文先指出未來氣候變遷的研究上，仍存在著許多定量模擬估算的不確定性；其次，則說明「輻射作用量」與「全球增溫潛勢」的定義；然後集中討論對流層內臭氧與懸浮微粒的變動，可能對氣候變遷模擬的不確定性影響。對流層內臭氧的不確定性影響，存在於無法掌握其未來經大氧傳送與化學反應等過程，所以形成的空間分佈與隨時間成長之變化特性。對流層內懸浮微粒的不確定性影響，則不僅在於其來源分佈、大小特性、化學成份等，也在於其轉變為雲滴凝結核（CCN）後所引發的雲物理效應尚無法掌握。本文最後建議：國內研究未來可以本土性之臭氧與懸浮微粒的觀測模擬以及物理、化學過程之了解為主。

關鍵字

臭氧 ； 懸浮微粒 ； 氣候變遷

並列摘要

The paper has first outlined a few uncertainties associated with the quantitative estimation of the future global climate change. The definitions of the radiative forcing and the global warming potential are introduced. Then, the discussions are focused on the effects of tropospheric ozone and aerosols. Generally, the uncertainties associated with the tropospheric ozone are mainly with the uncertain future increasing trend of tropospheric ozone amount, which could be resulted from the atmospheric transport and the complicate photochemical reactions. As to the uncertainties associated with the tropospheric aerosols, there are troubles in determining the size spectra, chemical composition, optical properties, spatial distribution of aerosols, and the could physical properties after aerosols turning to be CCNs. In all, research to clear the discussed uncertainties in Taiwan region are proposed.

並列關鍵字

ozone ； aerosols ； climate change