氣候變遷影響下台灣之颱風降雨分佈第一部份：數值模式控制實驗之校驗

Typhoon Rainfall Over Taiwan Under the Impact of Climate Change Part I: Verification of Numerical Control Simulation

王尹懋(Mark Yin-Mao Wang) ； 陳正達(Cheng-Ta Chen) ； 張智昇(Chih-Sheng Chang) ； 駱世豪(Shih-How Lo)

《大氣科學》 43卷2期 (2015/06) Pp. 151-169

摘要

本研究以雲解析數值模式模擬結果，探討在氣候模式估計之情境下，氣候變遷因子對於颱風造成台灣降雨分佈之改變與影響。本文利用再分析資料為模式初始場與邊界條件，佐以隨時間可變動之海溫觀測資料，模擬1996～2010年47個影響台灣之颱風，以此為本研究所需之控制實驗。分析模擬之颱風中心（路徑）及其造成之降雨，經比較現行國內外實務作業單位之即時模擬，以及過去颱風個案研究等，結果顯示本文使用之模擬策略，不論在颱風中心（路徑）或降雨分佈之模擬，雖稍遜於其他經較複雜方式（例如：EnKF）改善者，但仍具不錯且可信之模擬結果。因此，本文之雲模式數值模擬結果，可合理地做為本研究第二部分以高水平解析度（3公里）數值模式探討氣候變遷影響颱風對於台灣降雨分佈改變之控制實驗。

關鍵字

氣候變遷 ； 颱風降雨 ； 雲解析模式

並列摘要

In this study, the cloud-resolving model was utilized to discuss the impact of climate change on typhoon (TY) rainfall over Taiwan. Using atmospheric reanalysis and sea surface temperature observations as the model initial and boundary conditions, total 47 TYs affected Taiwan during 1996~2010 were simulated, and the set of simulations was treated as control run (CTRL) for this study. Compared with the results of real-time forecasts by operational centers, it shows that the strategy of CTRL utilized by this study can provide good and reliable results in terms of TY tracks and its rainfall over Taiwan, although the complex methods (e.g. EnKF for TY initial condition) utilized by other related researches can simulate a slightly better or comparable rainfall pattern over Taiwan than the CTRL. Therefore, the CTRL with 3-km horizontal resolution can be used as the control simulation for discussing the impact of climate change on TY rainfall over Taiwan.

並列關鍵字

Climate change ； Typhoon rainfall ； Cloud-resolving model