臺灣地區WRF颱風系集降雨機率預報之評估、校正與經濟價值分析－第三部分：經濟價值分析

Evaluation, Calibration and Economic Value Analysis of the Probabilistic Forecasts from WRF Ensemble Prediction System in Taiwan Area- Part 3: Analysis of Economic Value

陳冠儒(Guan-Ru Chen) ； 張惠玲(Hui-Ling Chang) ； 吳佳蓉(Chia-Jung Wu) ； 汪琮(Tsung Wang) ； 洪景山(Jing-Shan Hong) ； 楊舒芝(Chu-Chih Yang)

《大氣科學》 46卷2期 (2018/06) Pp. 198-221

https://doi.org/10.3966/025400022018064602004

摘要

系集預報主要是透過擾動模式初始場、邊界條件，以及各種參數法，產生多個系集預報成員，目的在於攫取預報過程中各種不確定性來源。經濟價值EV（Economic value）可用以評估使用者參考了系集預報進行決策後能夠獲得多少效益。本研究主要採用中央氣象局之WRF系集預報系統：WEPS（WRF ensemble prediction system）發展系集颱風降雨機率預報，除評估使用者以此預報產品做為決策依據所能獲得的經濟效益外，同時也比較機率預報與決定性預報兩者經濟價值的差異。結果顯示，即便決定性預報與機率預報來自於相同的系集成員，對於大部分的模式使用者來說，機率性預報能夠提供的經濟價值較高。

關鍵字

機率預報 ； 經濟價值

並列摘要

Ensemble prediction system is perturbed by different initial states, boundary conditions, and physical parameterization for generating different members. The multiple simulations are conducted to account for the source of uncertainty in forecast model. Analysis of Economic Value can estimate the benefit that user can obtain by making decision based on forecasting model. This study aims to WRF Ensemble Prediction System (WEPS) developed by Center Weather Bureau (CWB). The probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) is generated for typhoon rainfall. We not only estimate the economic value decision makers obtained from this prediction system, but compare the different of economic vale between probability forecasts and deterministic product transferred from same ensemble. As a result, probability forecasts can offer more economic value to a wider range of users.

並列關鍵字

probability forecasts ； economic value