氣候變遷對台灣地區空氣污染潛勢衝擊之評估

Analysis of Climate Change Impact on Air Pollution Potential in Taiwan

張哲明(Che-Ming Chang) ； 張隆男(Long-Nan Chang) ； 吳國榮(Gwo-Rong Wu) ； 呂世宗(Shih-Chong Lu)

《環境保護》 27卷1期 (2004/06) Pp. 106-120

https://doi.org/10.30017/EP.200406.0007

摘要

自工業革命後，大氣中溫室氣體(GHGs)濃度持續增加，導致全球氣候變化，而此變化亦將對各層面造成衝擊，且已成為環境科学和大氣科学研究之重要課題。台灣近三十年來由於工業化和都巿化，生活水準提升，能源消耗與日俱增，環境問題隨之日趨嚴重，空氣污染尤為重要問題之一。空氣污染主要受人為因素（污染源排放）和自然因素（氣象和氣候因素及地形等影響），而近年對污染源排放己較能掌握和控制，而受大氣環境及其變化影響之程度較不瞭解。本研究首先探討台灣大氣擴散潛勢分佈，再利用大氣擴散模式進行多年以上及其不同季節之模式模擬，針對不同氣候情景與短期氣候變化進行模擬，以評析短期氣候變化或區域氣候變遷對大氣環境和大氣污染潛勢之衝擊。綜合11年逐年模式模擬結果顯示，氣候變化影響北部、南部和東部地區大氣擴散潛勢變化趨勢，而致逐年不利或些微不利擴散，其平均最高濃度每年增加率分別約為1.38%、0.55%和0.29%，而中部地區大氣擴散潛勢變化趨勢則逐年有利擴散，其平均最高濃度每年減少率約為3.59%。

關鍵字

大氣擴散模式 ； 大氣污染潛勢

並列摘要

The diffusion of pollutant and the air pollution potential are highly influenced by the local climate situations. We have investigated the impact of the distribution of the air pollution potential in Taiwan area due to climate change. As a first step, we use a set of standard air pollution emission inventory and Texas Climate logical Model (TCM) to test the air pollution potential distribution due to different climate situations. Current trend of the climate change during the last decade (1990~2000) and its influence on air pollution potential are studied. During the last decade, central regions slow trend of improving air pollution potential, i.e. more favorable for pollutant diffusion in the region, with yearly rate of decreasing maximum concentration of 3.59%. Meanwhile, a reverse trend is find in north、south and east regions, with increasing rates of 1.38%、0.55% and 0.29% respectively, Finally, the seasonal variation of the air pollution potential and its decadal trend is discussed.

並列關鍵字

Climate Change Impact ； Diffusion ； Air pollution potential