氣候變遷整合評估模式：從IPCC到Taiwan-IPCC

Climate Change Integrated Assessments: From IPCC to Taiwan-IPCC

李河清(Ho-Ching Lee)

《環境保護》 27卷1期 (2004/06) Pp. 136-155

https://doi.org/10.30017/EP.200406.0009

摘要

近年來，氣候變遷與全球暖化已成為國際環境重大問題。為因應全球氣候變遷及本土環境變遷之衝擊，学術界建構發展了氣候變遷整合評估模式，將科学（研究成果）與政策（因應策略）相連結，並作為資源保育、環境管理決策過程之科学依據。
本文即以聯合國政府間氣候變遷小組(IPCC)為例，評析氣候驅動之整合評估模式之理念架構、形成背景及氣候公約演進過程、科学的不確性，並以台灣觀點，提出區域尺度、学門整合、公共參與之政策建議並倡議成立Taiwan-IPCC之可行性。

關鍵字

氣候變遷 ； 整合評估模式 ； IPCC ； 氣候變化綱要公約

並列摘要

Global environmental issues such as climate change and global warming have recently become a pressing concern for both policymakers and the general public. Consequently, climate change integrated assessments are developed and advanced by the academic communities as policy tools to assess climate impacts and initiate policy responses. It is generally assumed that scientific fin dings from these integrated assessments will constitute a key component in the development of environmental policymaking. However, science-policy interaction and evolution is a complex process and does not take place automatically.
Growing from an integrated research project on the development and application of the regional climate models, this paper takes the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as a case study. It gives an overview of integrated assessments, their characteristics, and their strengths and weaknesses in application. In particular, it addresses policy-relevant issues from a Taiwan perspective. In the end, drawing lessons from the IPCC science-policy process, it will also discuss potential challenges and opportunities confronting scientific communities in Taiwan, and call for a Taiwan-IPCC initiative.

並列關鍵字

Integrated assessments ； Environmental policymaking ； Regional climate models ； Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC ； Framework Convention on Climate Change FCCC