崩塌地水土保持工程參數成本估計模型之研究－以台大實驗林為例

A Study on Parametric Cost Estimating Model for Landslide Soil and Water Conservation Project-the Case of the Experimental Forest of National Taiwan University

鄭欽龍(Chin-Long Zheng) ； 張竣翔(Jun-Xiang Chang)

《國立臺灣大學生物資源暨農學院實驗林研究報告》 23卷1期 (2009/03) Pp. 37-45

https://doi.org/10.6542/EFNTU.200903_23(1).0003

摘要

成本估計為政府和企業在預算控制上的重要工作。本文旨在探討如何建立參數成本估計模型用以估計崩塌地水土保持工程的成本，並評估應用此模型估計的準確性。本文以台大實驗林之崩塌地水土保持工程案為例，首先蒐集整理資料，再以迴歸分析法建構其參數成本估計模型，然後利用拔鞋法分析此模型的準確度。研究結果顯示，模型的主要參數為：施工面積大小、施工方法、施工地區和施工起始年度，並以半對數函數及施工面積為權數的加權迴歸式配適最佳。施工面積對工程成本呈正向關係，不同施工方法與地區在成本有差異，而愈後施工成本有愈少的趨勢。此外，應用此模型估計成本的平均絕對百分比誤差為15%，其準確性在可接受的範圍內。

關鍵字

成本估價 ； 崩塌地 ； 參數成本估計模型 ； 水土保持

並列摘要

Cost estimation is very important to capital budgeting of governments and enterprises. This paper aims to explore how to build a parametric cost estimating (PCE) model to estimate the cost of landslide soil and water conservation project, and to assess the accuracy of estimation by this model. Using landslide conservation projects from NTU Experimental Forest as empirical cases, we first collected and rechecked data, applied regression analysis to construct a PCE model for the projects, and finally utilized the bootstrap method to assess the accuracy of the estimating model. The results show that the main parameters of the model are: the size of construction area, type of construction work and location, and starting time of construction. The weighted regression model by the size of construction area and semi-logarithmic function fitted best among others. The size of construction area is positively related to costs. Different types of construction works and locations affect costs, and cases from later period have a tendency of fewer costs. In addition, the mean absolute percentage error of using the PCE model to estimate costs is 15% and its accuracy is within an acceptable range.

並列關鍵字

cost appraisal ； landslide ； parametric cost estimating model ； soil and water conservation