玉山與台北地區長期氣溫趨勢分析

Analysis of Long-term Temperature Trend in Yushan and Taipei

邱祈榮(Chyi-Rong Chiou) ； 花瑄鴻(Hsuan-Hung Hua)

《國立臺灣大學生物資源暨農學院實驗林研究報告》 33卷4期 (2019/12) Pp. 259-276

https://doi.org/10.6542/EFNTU.201912_33(4).0003

摘要

氣候變遷已是全球矚目的關鍵議題，台灣亦有許多關於台灣氣候變化趨勢的研究，但對於不同海拔的氣候變化研究較少。本研究藉由台灣高海拔的玉山、低海拔台北測站自1967－2017年共51年的氣象資料，運用Mann-Kendall趨勢檢定法、Theil-Sen斜率推估法及Mann-Whitney-Pettit改變點檢定法，分析玉山、台北兩地區測站日最高溫、日最低溫的變化、日較差的趨勢，並比較全年與夏半年、冬半年氣溫變化趨勢差異，以及長期冷暖日夜的天數變化情形，和趨勢轉折的改變點。再以跨測站的比較，探討不同海拔地區間是否有相同的氣候變化趨勢。研究結果顯示，玉山及台北兩測站50年氣溫變化量均高於全台平均。日最高溫、日最低溫皆呈現上升趨勢。玉山日較差擴大；台北則因日最低溫上升速度較日最高溫快，而呈現日較差縮小的趨勢。冷暖日夜的分析結果呈現暖日夜日數增加、冷日夜日數下降。依據本研究之分析結果，我們推測高海拔地區，像是玉山，會對氣候變遷較為敏感，而都市地區，例如台北，則可能因熱島效應產生加乘效果。透過本次研究釐清台灣不同海拔氣候變化的趨勢，可作為未來因應氣候變遷的參考，降低未來氣候變遷對台灣所造成的衝擊。

關鍵字

氣候變遷 ； 都市熱島效應 ； 高海拔氣候

並列摘要

Climate change has been a key issue in the world. Although there have been many studies on the trend of climate change in Taiwan, only a few were focused on different altitudes. As a result, this study gathered a total of 51-year meteorological data from 1967 to 2017 at Yushan and Taipei stations, representing high and low altitudes. We applied the Mann-Kendall rank test, Theil-Sen estimative method, and the Mann-Whitney-Pettit method to analyze trends of daily maximum and minimum temperature, diurnal temperature range, trends of summer and winter temperature, and the long-term trend of number of days for both cold and warm day and night. Then we did cross-station comparisons to explore if there were similar trends at different altitudes. The results showed that during the fifty years the average temperature changes at both Yushan and Taipei stations were higher than the average of Taiwan, and there were increasing trends for daily maximum and minimum temperatures. The results also revealed a greater diurnal temperature range in Yushan; while in Taipei it appeared a greater daily minimum temperature rise than daily maximum. Analysis results found that number of warm days and nights have increased; while cold days and nights decreased. Based on our results, we argue that high-altitude environments, like Yushan, may be more sensitive to climatic change, while metropolitan areas, like Taipei, may be more easily to carry the urban heat island effect. Consequently, the trends analyzed in this study at different altitudes can help clarify the potential impact of climate change on Taiwan in the future.

並列關鍵字

Climate change ； Urban heat island effect ； High altitude climate