摘要
本研究針對台灣本島進行區域乾旱特性分析。首先，以標準化降雨指標（standardized precipitation index, SPI）定義各站之乾旱事件，再利用自組織映射圖（self-organizing map, SOM）網路進行分群。由二維密度圖可知，台灣地區68個雨量站可被分成6群。經由不一致估量（discordancy measure）及異質性估量（heterogeneity measure）評估結果顯示，這些群集均通過測試。接著以適合度估量（goodness-of-fit measure）選取各群集最適合之機率分佈。最後，再分別推估各群集之頻率乾旱量、乾旱強度及乾旱延時，此結果將可作為未來台灣地區水利設施規劃設計之參考。
並列摘要
The purpose of this paper was to carry out regional drought frequency analysis in Taiwan. First, a standardized precipitation index (SPI) was used to define droughts. Then a self-organizing map (SOM) was used to group the rain gauges into specific clusters. The two-dimensional density map shows the rain gauges can be grouped into six clusters. Moreover, the L-moment based discordance and heterogeneity measures were used to test whether clusters may be accepted as homogeneous. The results showed the six clusters were sufficiently homogeneous. Then, the goodness-of-fit measure was used to select the best regional probability distributions of droughts. Finally, the drought magnitudes, drought intensities, and drought durations with various return periods for each cluster were estimated. The results provide a reference for the future design of hydraulic structures in Taiwan.
延伸閱讀
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