應用季節性氣候預報於水庫蓄水量預測

Application of Seasonal Climate Forecast to Reservoir Storage Prediction

童慶斌(Ching-Pin Tung) ； 劉子明(Tzu-Ming Liu) ； 李明旭(Ming-Hsu Li)

《農業工程學報》 52卷2期 (2006/06) Pp. 51-66

https://doi.org/10.29974/JTAE.200606.0006

摘要

乾旱的發生緩慢且不易察覺，為了及早預知乾旱的來臨，本研究嘗試利用中央氣象局的季節預報資料，進行水庫蓄水量預報之研究，提供決策者能針對未來可能發生之乾旱及早準備以及規劃。本研究利用解析機率模擬法，以石門水庫為研究對象，利用禁忌搜尋法優選出降雨機率分佈與水庫蓄水增加量的機率分佈之轉換關係，並以均勻分佈隨機變數進行蒙地卡羅模擬。經由2001年四月～2003年十月的所有預報資料模擬結果得知，預報可信度相當不錯。並模擬2002年與2003年乾旱事件，結果顯示由預報結果可提早掌握乾旱發生的先機，提供決策者作出更完善的乾旱調適策略。最後針對2006年一月～三月的預報進行水庫蓄水量預報模擬，顯示2006年一月～三月的蓄水量將逐漸減少，應隨時注意未來氣候的變化，並擬定對策以減少乾旱發生帶來之衝擊。未來將隨著氣象局季節預報的更新，同時進行水庫蓄水量的預報。

關鍵字

禁忌搜尋法 ； 蒙地卡羅模擬 ； 乾旱預警

並列摘要

There is always no premonition when the draught happening. In order to predict the coming draught, and have more time to get ready and plan for it, the seasonal climate forecast of Central Weather Bureau is used to predict the future water storage of a reservoir. In this study, the analytical probability simulation is applied to the Shihmen reservoir. The approach of Tabu search is used to search the transformation function between the probabilities of the precipitation and probabilities of the increase of the reservoir storage. The uniform random sampling is applied to the Monte Carol Simulation. From all the simulation in April 2001 to October 2003, the result showed that the opportunity of knowing a coming draught event at an early date is provided, and the decision maker make better strategies for the coming draught. In the end, the future water storage of the Shihmen reservoir in January to March 2003 is forecasted. There will be reducing water storage in the future three month in the forecast. The variety of the weather is still need to be concerned and the strategies of the draught need to be drew up to reduce the impact of the future draught. In the future, the forecast of the water storage of Shihmen reservoir will be updated by following the update of the seasonal forecast of the Central Weather Bureau every month.

並列關鍵字

Tabu search ； Monte Carol simulation ； Draught warning