桃園地區農業休耕時機之探討

Timing of Fallow in Taoyuan Area

黃文政(Wen-Cheng Huang) ； 周家慶(Chia-Ching Chou)

《農業工程學報》 54卷2期 (2008/06) Pp. 21-34

https://doi.org/10.29974/JTAE.200806.0003

摘要

進年來桃園地區農業用水屢遭缺水移用，針對枯旱缺水時期，如何於期作施灌前判斷休耕或停灌之啟動時機，經常令管理者不知所措。尤其是當未來用水狀態不明確可供判斷盈缺時（如：九十一、九十二及九十五年之桃園地區休耕事件）。將更令管理單位無適從。本研究以姚園地區爲例，基於過去乾旱預警模式發展，粽合乾旱的監測、影響、預警、應變至決策分析，檢定評估休耕時機決策之準確性及適度性，最後另針對休耕時機分析水庫滿足未來可靠拱水之臨界蓄水量，以增輔桃園地區抗旱應變決策之參考。

關鍵字

桃園地區 ； 決策分析 ； 休耕時機

並列摘要

In recent years, drought events hit Taoyuan area frequently and brought immense impacts to agricultural sector. Indeed, it is difficult for decision makers to make an appropriate decision under uncertainty, in particular when alternatives differ substantially from each other. This study presents a decision analysis integrated into a drought early warning system (DEWS) for timing of fallow. For demonstration, the decision analysis procedures were effectively applied to historical years from dry condition to wet situation. The implementation of such a stem proves that the decision analysis can help the water authorities to make a suitable decision while confronting drought threats.

並列關鍵字

Taoyuan area ； Decision analysis ； Timing of fallow