廣域水資源開發計畫之最佳排程分析

當供水系統無法負荷與日俱增之用水需求時，一般以開發水資源設施提高系統供水能力因應。就經濟觀點而言，需在滿足未來各年期需求水量，或一可容忍之缺水限度下，尋求規劃期程內總建造與營運成本最小的整體開發策略。在已有許多設施營運下之廣域系統，安排新設施的開發期程，必須先確認既有設施與新開發設施並存下的系統整體可供水量或新設施的增供水量，本文運用通用性廣域水資源運用模擬模式，依據水庫運用規線及其他水源連用原則，計算每一新增設施或數個設施組合對系統的增供水量，再應用動態規劃法求得最佳的系列所需開發方案與其供水年度。本研究以台灣北部基隆河水系總體開發規劃爲例，對有關單位擬議的開發方案，分析該系統最小總開發成本的水資源計畫開發期程。

關鍵字

水資源開發；排程；動態規劃；網流模式

並列摘要

Developing water resources facilities is the traditional measure to reduce the shortage if the yield of a water supply system is unable to cope with the rising demand. The optimal capacity expansion strategy should provide sufficient water to satisfy the required demand during the time horizion with minimum construction and operation, maintance and repairment costs. The yield of a regional system is jointly contributed by existing and newly developed water resource facilities. It should be estimated before setting up the optimal scheduling strategy of proposed projects in a regional water supply system. This paper applied a generalized water resources allocation model to simulate the increased system yields of different combinations of proposed water resource facilities. It then applied the dynamic programming to optimize the schedule of developimg proposed projects to reliably supply water. This study devised the master plan of the Keelung river system in northern Taiwan as an example. All potential projects scheduled were proposed by Water Resources Agency, Taiwan. The optimal scheduling strategy of minimum developing cost in the studied time horizion of the Keclung river system was determined along with meeting future water demands.

並列關鍵字

Water resources development ； Project scheduling ； Dynamic programming ； Network flow model

國際替代計量

廣域水資源開發計畫之最佳排程分析

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