洪災之人命傷亡風險分析：以臺南市為例

Risk Analysis for Casualties of Flood Disaster: A Case Study of Tainan City

潘宗毅(Tsung-Yi Pan) ； 張倉榮(Tsang-Jung Chang) ； 賴進松(Jihn-Sung Lai) ； 王藝峰(Yi-Fung Wang) ； 謝明昌(Ming-Chang Shieh) ； 許銘熙(Ming-Hsi Hsu)

《農業工程學報》 58卷4期 (2012/12) Pp. 95-110

https://doi.org/10.29974/JTAE.201212.0009

摘要

臺灣平均每年遭受3～5個颱風侵襲，颱風豪雨所引致之淹水災害造成每年臺灣地區人民生命財產損失主要天然災害。近年來，全球氣候變遷現象日益顯著，未來極端天氣的產生更形頻繁，水利署為了降低颱風豪雨所引致之淹水災害，近年已完成全臺灣之淹水潛勢圖並公開民眾查詢。然而，淹水潛勢圖僅能顯示淹水深度產生之危險分布，並無考慮淹水深度以外之淹水物理量。故本研究將結合淹水潛勢圖資與相關社會經濟等地理資訊，進一步探討人命之洪災危險度、脆弱度及風險分析。水災風險係由水災之危險度及脆弱度應用層級分析法進行綜合評估之結果。水災危險係指淹水過程諸多可能造成危險之因子之總合指標，如淹水深度、水流速、水位上升速率；水災脆弱度係指暴露於淹水災害中之對象，其易受影響之程度。傳統評估淹水事件之影響多以金錢量化其造成之損失，然人命無價，無法以金錢量化之，因此本研究將以生命面向發展水災之危險度、脆弱度以風險分析之評估方法，期冀提供更有效率、更實務之資訊，作為政府的相關水利單位決策之依據。

關鍵字

人命 ； 危險度 ； 脆弱度 ； 風險分析 ； 層級分析法

並列摘要

Taiwan suffers three to five typhoons annually. Flooding disaster induced by typhoon torrential rain is one of the major natural disasters causing casualties and property loss. In recent years, the impact of global climate change increases significantly, and extreme weather occurs more frequently. In order to reduce the flooding disaster induced by typhoon torrential rain, Water Resources Agency has completed inundation potential maps of Taiwan and released to the public. However, the inundation potential maps only show the distribution of inundation depth without any other inundation characteristics. Therefore, this study will combine inundation potential maps with related socio-economic data based on geographic information systems to further explore life casualties in flood hazard, vulnerability and risk analysis. Flood risk is evaluated from flood hazard and vulnerability via analytic hierarchy process analysis. Flood hazard is considered as an integrated result of several important indicators of the hazard factors, such as flooding depth, flow velocity, and water level rise rate. Flood vulnerability refers to the vulnerable degree of the exposure to flooding disaster. Traditionally, the impact assessment of flooding events could be quantified in monetary losses, but human life is priceless. Briefly, this study will develop a methodology of flood risk analysis for human life according to the vulnerability and hazard assessment. Finally, the contribution of this study could provide more efficient, more practice for the decision-making in flood emergency operation.

並列關鍵字

Life ； Hazard ； Vulnerability ； Risk ； Analytic hierarchy process