災後遷村計畫政策風險評估－以南投縣廬山為例

Risk Assessment on Policy of Relocation for Disaster Affected Village - Using the Lushan Village as an Example

林怡資(Yi-Tzu Lin) ； 陳皆儒(Jie-Ru Chen) ； 劉家男(Chia-Nan Liu) ； 劉一中(I-Chung Liu)

《農業工程學報》 64卷4期 (2018/12) Pp. 94-111

https://doi.org/10.29974/JTAE.201812_64(4).0007

摘要

災害的風險管理除了硬體與軟體的減災整備外，人是風險管理中最大的變數與重要因子，本文試以行政院研考會所提之政策風險管理方法，以廬山遷村案被提出之背景與討論過程為例，模擬遷村政策的提出所涉及之風險進行專家調查法之評估，透過訪談瞭解問題成因，以及專家問卷調查法進行風險評估，並試擬處理策略。本研究結論為，雖然與居民溝通協商的過程具變數，但透過風險管理的角度可針對遷村政策之推動與執行提出有用的洞見與合理執行的考量。足見計畫或政策推動的初期進行風險評估與管理程序之研擬，有助於釐清重要推動策略及必要之執行方案，進一步配合策略之優先順序與執行時程，降低政策推動之不確定性，實為提升政策施行成效之有用工具。

關鍵字

災害管理 ； 遷村政策 ； 風險評估 ； 天然災害

並列摘要

A comprehensive management of risk for disasters involved hazard reduction and disaster preparedness in aspects of hardware and software. Human factor is often considered to be of the most significance and of greatest uncertainty. For a disaster prone area, relocation of a village is an option for disaster management. However, village relocation is a highly complicated matter with many controversial issues to be addressed. Ineffective implementation or failure for village relocation in the past may be attributed to the lack of a systematic approach for handling multifaceted issues that might come across along the process. In this study, application of risk management for handling the village relocation policy is investigated. Risk identification for significant issues to be addressed throughout the relocation process was conducted through interviews. Expert elicitation was used for risk analysis and assessment to prioritize potential adverse issues. With the assessment results, measures for reducing adverse effects of issues were proposed. This study gives insight on when and which entity should implement certain measures to enhance the execution of the village location. It is found that risk management is an effective tool for tackling complicated policy such as the village location, and the application of risk management is better implemented at the early stage.

並列關鍵字

disaster ； village relocation ； risk management ； natural hazard