民意調查的客觀解讀

The Analysis and Interpretation of Public Opinion Poll: A Professional Experience

周祖誠(Tsu-Cheng Chou)

《研考雙月刊》 30卷4期 (2006/08) Pp. 62-72

https://doi.org/10.6978/YKSYK.200608.0062

摘要

本文就民意調查實務上常見到的一些事例，整理出一些解釋民意調查結果時應注意的8項原則，包括：一、養成質疑數字合理性的習慣；二、理解調查數字的定義；三、樣本敘述、抽樣誤差及樣本代表性；四、不可過度推論問卷意義；五、引述有意義的調查結果；六、百分比、百分點、成長百分比；七、比率高低沒有絕對標準；八、不同民意調查結果的比較等。

關鍵字

民意調查 ； 抽樣 ； 問卷

並列摘要

For the better understanding and interpretation of opinion poll, this paper streamlines eight major guidelines for general references from the professional experiences.
1) To question the rationalities of polling figures continually; some of them are far away from conventional wisdoms.
2) To sense the connotations of polling figures clearly; many figures are differing from their specific definitions in concept.
3) To report the statements of polling figures comprehensively; especially on sampling error and sample representativeness.
4) To interpret the meanings of polling figures conservatively; don't make inferences too much and beyond questionnaire wordings.
5) To cite the results of polling figures meaningfully; some survey results are standing to results and of no values to be mentioned.
6) To distinguish the differences of confusing concepts carefully; especially on ”percentage”, ”percent”, and the ”change ratio in percentage”.
7) To understand the relativities of polling figures socially and historically; there exists no golden rules or concrete thresholds to direct what level of figures are too high or too low-depending on different social, cultural and historic contexts.
To compare the results of polling figures consistently; with same polling organization, same population, same questionnaire ordering, and same survey method,,, etc.

並列關鍵字

opinion poll ； sampling ； questionnaire