花蓮地區集水區土砂潛勢災害風險評估分析之研究

Risk Assessment Model for Evaluating the Potential Occurrence of Sediment Disasters at Hualien Watershed in Taiwan

蔡光榮(K. J. Tsai) ； 陳昆廷(K. T. Chen) ； 王宣惠(S. H. Wang) ； 林岱本(T. P. Lin) ； 謝正倫(C. L. Shieh)

《鑛冶：中國鑛冶工程學會會刊》 57卷1期 (2013/03) Pp. 52-61

https://doi.org/10.30069/MM.201303_57(1).0004

摘要

花蓮地區地形東西短南北長，地勢陡急狹長，受颱風豪雨影響甚大，且近年來降雨量屢創新高，土砂災害問題頻傳。尤其花蓮地區境內重要集水區之坡地遭受崩塌、沖蝕與土石流肆虐為害，危及花蓮地區重大公共工程建設與居民生命財產安全更為顯鉅。有鑑於此，本研究乃針對花蓮縣轄秀姑巒溪及壽豐溪集水區內131處土砂災害防治工程進行現況調查，並蒐集該區域內相關自然環境、土砂災害與衛星影像資料，據以建構相關GIS主題圖層，另針對致災誘因進行分析，以Pearson積差相關分析、X^2獨立性檢定及因子融合性檢定等複相關迴歸式統計分析後，加以萃取區域內各項土砂災害之重要致災因子，並運用多變量不安定指數分析法建立適用於花蓮地區集水區之土砂潛勢災害風險評估模式，據以評估花蓮地區境內土砂災害發生風險機率，以提供相關單位作為花蓮地區集水區土砂災害防治方案研擬之重要參考依據。

關鍵字

風險評估 ； 土砂災害 ； 全球衛星定位／地理資訊系統

並列摘要

The topography of slope lands at Hualien County in the eastern Taiwan is quite steep, narrow, and elongated. It is susceptible to heary rainfall causing sediment related disasters. Hsiukuluan and Shoufeng watersheds were selected as two research spots for the potential risk analysis of sediment disaster. Mechanism, behavior and scale of sediment disasters were analyzed to determine the factors contributed to these disasters. Global positioning systems (GPS) was used to collect all fundamental informations including site positioning, disaster scale investigation, and other disaster related factors. Geographic information systems (GIS) was also utilized to establish the database systems of sediment related disaster. GPS/GIS integrated with multivariable regression analysis method were applied on analyzling field data collected from 131 sediment disaster areas. All results demonstrated by this study can help Hualien County set up its disaster prevention program.

並列關鍵字

Risk Assessment ； Sediment Disasters ； GPS/GIS