- 期刊
國家氣候變遷與災害脆弱度評估：資本分析法之應用
National Vulnerability to Climate Change and Related Disasters A Capital-based Approach to Assessment
摘要
為因應氣候變遷與極端氣候事件的可能衝擊，各國多非常關注如何有效調適，以降低災害風險與追求永續發展。本研究主要目的，在於引入嶄新的資本分析法，建置國家層級氣候變遷與災害脆弱度評估指標體系，及藉之進行主要國家之氣候變遷與災害脆弱度評估與比較分析。資本方法乃基於資本存量概念，提供更合適的脆弱度評估方法，可藉之瞭解吸收災害衝擊之韌性（resilience）與調適力。本文共考慮5項資本與20項指標，運用多準則決策分析（multiple criteriadecision-making analysis）與群落分析（cluster analysis），評估與比較37國在2002與2010年兩年度間之脆弱度特性與分布。評估結果發現，兩年度之脆弱度分布無顯著變化，脆弱度較高之國家皆主要分布在東歐、亞洲與中、南美洲。另亦發現經濟與人力、人造與制度資本三者間之排名具有密切關係，其亦是決定國家脆弱度的關鍵要素。
並列摘要
Many countries assess climate change and extreme weather events to create targets for reducing disaster vulnerability and risk, and improving sustainability. This article develops a novel methodological framework for vulnerability assessment at the national level, using a capital-based approach. The proposed vulnerability assessment framework consists of 5 forms of capital and 20 indicators. An international vulnerability assessment is performed by assessing and comparing the vulnerability of 37 countries from 2002 to 2010 using a multiple-criterion decision-making approach combined with cluster analysis. Analytical results indicate that the most vulnerable countries are located in East Europe, Asia, Central and Southern America. Strong correlations are found between economic, human, man-made and institutional capital. These three forms of capital are highly consistent in the ranking of the vulnerability countries.