震災時都市居民避難風險區域之研究：以臺北市萬華區為例

臺灣地處歐亞大陸板塊與菲律賓海板塊聚合交界處，歷年地震活動相當頻繁，然而現今地震仍無法藉由預測技術得知，一旦於人口稠密且產經活動聚集之都市地區發生大規模地震災害，除了造成建築物倒塌、道路橋樑破壞、火災發生及維生管線受損外，將使民眾生命財產安全暴露於威脅下，間接影響後續民眾逃生至避難據點的難易程度，此亦反應出各避難據點之有效服務範圍與收容能量是否能在短時間內提供區域內居民進行避難使用，降低臨災移動的不便利性。有鑑於此，本研究以臺北市萬華區境內16處震災指定避難據點為研究對象，運用臺灣地震損失評估系統（Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System, TELES）及地理資訊系統（Geographic Information System, GIS）之模擬分析，比較研究區域內各街廓至鄰近避難據點出入口的最短步行距離，重新建構較完善的避難據點服務範圍，並評估震災時各避難據點的收容安置能量是否足夠，以求得都市地區居民避難的風險區域，作為政府公部門於地區震災避難執行對策上的參考依據。研究結果顯示，臺北市萬華區境內的「雙園國小」、「西門國小」、「華江國小」、「萬大國小」、「萬華國中」、「龍山國小」及「雙園國中」為收容安置能量較為不足的避難據點。而在避難據點500公尺服務範圍的評估中，則以頂碩里、糖廍里、和平里與日善里內的街廓涵蓋所佔次數居多，雖周邊避難據點較為密集，但亦使地方居民於災時難以立即擇定適當的避難據點，增加人流相互衝突等災害風險。而街廓至鄰近避難據點的最短步行距離超過500公尺者，則以東側與西南側為多。此外，西南側的孝德里、銘德里、榮德里及華中里於居民避難風險評估上，為震災時須挹注避難救援能量之區域，其中榮德里內有高達47.2%的街廓面積判定為高避難風險，說明該地區於防救災整備上應著重規劃民眾避難相關應變措施。

關鍵字

臺灣地震損失評估系統；地理資訊系統；避難據點服務範圍；街廓；收容安置能量

並列摘要

Taiwan is at high risk of earthquakes due to its location at the junction of the Eurasian Plate and the Philippine Sea Plate. However, no approaches are currently available for predicting earthquakes in advance. A large-scale earthquake in a densely populated urban area with concentrated economic activities leads to collapsing buildings, destruction of roads and bridges, fires and damage to life-supporting pipelines. These damages expose people's lives and properties to threats and negatively affect people's escape to shelters. This also reflects whether shelters are sufficient to provide effective services and accommodate local residents during a short period, thereby reducing the inconvenience of disaster-caused movement. The present study investigates 16 shelters for earthquake disasters in Wanhua District of Taipei City. A simulation analysis is performed using Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System and Geographic Information System to identify the shortest walking distances between various street blocks and the entrances and exits of nearby shelters, to reconstruct the satisfactory scope of services provided by the shelters, and to assess whether the accommodation capacity of various shelters is sufficient for earthquake disasters, thereby identifying risky areas where local residents required shelters. The results of this study can act as a reference for public sectors to implement their policies for providing shelters to local residents during earthquake disasters. Analytical results indicate that, Shuang Yuan Primary School, Ximen Elementary School, Huajiang Elementary School, Wanda Elementary School, Wanhua Junior High School, Longshan Elementary School and Shuang Yuan Junior High School have insufficient capacity to serve as shelters in Wanhua District of Taipei City. For the 500-meter service scope of various shelters, the numbers of shelters are highest among the street blocks in Dingshuo, Tang, Heping and Rishan neighborhoods. However, the densely distributed shelters in the surrounding make immediately choosing an appropriate shelter when a disaster occurred difficult for local residents, possibly increasing flow conflicts among people. The east and southwest areas contain the largest numbers of street blocks whose shortest walking distances from nearby shelters exceed 500 meters. Additionally, among Xiaode, Mingde, Rongde and Huazhong neighborhoods, which required more sheltering and rescue capacities than other neighborhoods, up to 47.2% of the street block area in Rongde neighborhood was determined as a high-risk shelter area, indicating that this neighborhood requires most countermeasures for sheltering local people from disasters.

並列關鍵字

Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System ； Geographic Information System ； Shelter Service Scope ； street block ； accommodation capacity

參考文獻

李泳龍、周士雄，戴政安 2009。都市震災臨時避難據點區位與服務圈域關係分析－永康市為例。建築學報 67: 149-68, doi: 10.6377/JA.200903.0149。

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