自動驗票機制的法規

A Rule of Mandatory Election Recount

陳順益(Shun-Yi Chen) ； 徐晉鋒(Ching-Feng Hsu)

《中國統計學報》 46卷1期 (2008/03) Pp. 36-60

https://doi.org/10.29973/JCSA.200803.0004

摘要

台灣沒有自動驗票機制的法令規定。如果些微票數落敗的候選人想要重新驗票，就必須向法院提出選舉訴訟及請求重新驗票。司法訴訟曠日費時，在等待法院審理期間，紛爭不斷，付出的社會成本太高。反之，若有自動驗票機制的法規，在開票後能及時啓動自動驗票機制，不僅可以避免冗長的選舉訴訟程序，且能在最短時間內公告真實得票數。
本文提出一統計模型，驗證過去重新驗票的實際案例，並探討美國有自動驗票機制的各州法規。在此統計模型的同樣標準（機率）下，對台灣大型選舉與地區性的選舉，制定出合理的自動驗票機制規則。

關鍵字

選舉 ； 行政驗票 ； 司法驗票 ； 二項分布 ； 機率

並列摘要

There is no mandatory election recount rule in Taiwan. The candidate who lost must apply to the court to request an election recount. The losing candidate who was unwilling to accept the election result created much political turbulence, contributing greatly to a general feeling of unease among citizens and a waste of resources through disputes over the lengthy lawsuit procedure. The purpose of this article is to propose a statistical study and formulate a guideline of mandatory election recount for Taiwan by examining the past election recount examples and studying the rules of election recount in each US state.

並列關鍵字

Election ； recount ； binomial distribution ； probability

參考文獻

預測驗票的結果

Chen, Grace S.C.(2004)。選舉研究：重新計票之理論探討。中國統計學報。42，277-287。

Downs, Tom,Gilliland, Dennis C.,Katz, Leo(1978).Probability in a Contested Election.The American Statistician.32,122-125.

Finkelstein, M.O.,Robbins, H.E.(1973).Mathematical Probability in Election Challenges.Columbia Law Review.73,241-248.

Gilliland, Dennis C.(1984).Probability in a Contested Election (UMAP Module 634).The UMAP Journal.5,61-73.