Consumer Responses to Animal Disease Epidemics: An Empirical Study of the FMD Outbreak

消費者對動物傳染病爆發的反應毛豬口蹄疫爆發實證分析

蔡建雄(Jason Tsai)

《農業經濟半年刊》 69期 (2001/06) Pp. 167-187

https://doi.org/10.7086/JAE.200106.0167

摘要

本文旨在從消費者人口統計變數、經濟變數等探討消費者對台灣在1997年爆發的毛豬口蹄疫傳染病的反應及其對豬肉消費的影響。
為了分析消費者對豬肉的偏好與態度受口蹄疫爆發的影響，特別針對全台灣的消費者進行抽樣人員訪問。問卷內容包括消費者對口蹄疫所引發的食品安全知識與態度等相關議題。文中依消費經濟理論，以Probit和Logit模型估計之。結果顯示口蹄疫爆發對豬肉的負面影響極為顯著。特別是所得愈高，教育年數愈高或都市地區居民受到的負面影響程度愈大。本研究結果發現都市與鄉村居民因口蹄疫爆發而減少消費豬肉，其減少豬肉消費的行為可能隨時間改變而漸減。

關鍵字

口蹄疫 ； Probit模型 ； Logit模型

並列摘要

This paper examines consumer responses to the 1997 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak that decimated Taiwan's pork industry, with special attention to consumer response differences according to demonstration and economic factors.
The probit and logit models were modified to analyze consumers' preferences and attitudes toward pork as demonstrated in data collected from a personal questionnaire distributed throughout Taiwan island which focused on consumers' knowledge and attitudes about food safety issues and factors. Results suggest that the FMD outbreak had a significantly negative impact on pork consumption, with higher income families, with greater education and living in city areas showing the greatest reluctance toward pork consumption after the third month and the sixth month. This study suggests a need for a greater gout effort to reveal that people who live in rural or city areas have significant and different responses to the FMD epidemic and the effect of these differences are sustained longer than any other variables.

並列關鍵字

FMD ； Probit model ； Logit model