影響不動產市場之從眾行為與總體經濟因素之研究

傳統財務理論假設市場為效率市場，然相較於證券市場，不動產市場之資訊相對較不透明，效率亦相對較低，因此購屋者可能選擇忽視自身擁有之資訊，進而追隨人群的購屋決策，導致價量波動異常。以往文獻多藉價格波動性探討從眾行為，但因從眾行為之結果首先將反映於交易量之波動，故本研究擬藉交易量驗證台灣不動產市場之從眾行為現象，並比較台灣三大都會區之住宅交易量受從眾行為及總體經濟因素之影響。實證結果顯示，臺北市之住宅市場存在從眾行為，臺中市與高雄市則較不顯著，原因可能與區域之產業發展、就業機會與住宅供需情形有關。而當該住宅市場存在從眾行為時，當期交易量除受到從眾行為影響，尚受到前期市場報酬率、經濟成長率、營建類股股價指數、租金年增率、營造工程物價指數正向影響；而與持有成本、購屋貸款利率，以及通貨膨脹呈反向變動。本文為國內首篇針對不動產市場之交易量進行從眾行為探討之研究，結果可提供給購屋者與投資者在決策實務上、以及政府於產業管理與制定政策時一有效參考。

關鍵字

不動產市場；從眾行為；交易量波動；自我迴歸分配落遲模型

並列摘要

The traditional financial theory assumes that the market is efficient, however, the real estate market is less efficient than the security market. Due to the lack of transparent information, home buyers can not react to market information rationally. They may choose to follow other peoples' decisions and lead to the herding behavior and price volatility or unusual transactions. Most previous studies employed the return and its deviation as the measurement of the herding behavior, however, the trading volume volatility is the indicator of herding behavior prior to return. This study thus intends to examine the trading volume in the residential real estate market to observe the herding behavior in Taiwan. Results show that the herding behavior of residential real estate market exists in Taipei City. In contrast, the effect on Taichung and Kaohsiung is not significant. Factors attributing to the different results may include the industry concentration, employment opportunity and the relative scarcity of housing supply in various regions. We also find that the transactions of herding behavior in the residential real estate market may be affected by user cost of housing and previous market returns. Furthermore, some macroeconomic factors (i.e., economic growth rate, construction stocks index, change of housing rents and construction costs) impose positive impact on the housing transactions. On the contrary, mortgage interest rates and consumer price index have negative influence. This paper is the first study focusing the trading volume in the real estate market for the herding behavior in Taiwan. Results may provide precious lessons for homebuyers, investors, administrative authorities, and policy makers.