氣象資訊服務經濟價值評估－以臺灣主力農家為例

Benefit Evaluation of Weather Information Service-The Case of Major Farm Households in Taiwan

林桓億(Hen-I Lin) ； 許聖章(Sheng-Jang Sheu) ； 劉哲良(Je-Liang Liou)

《應用經濟論叢》 109期 (2021/06) Pp. 41-81

https://doi.org/10.3966/054696002021060109002

摘要

本研究之主要目的為評估台灣主力農家對於現有中央氣象局所提供氣象資訊服務應用於農業上的主觀評價，並以此做為氣象資訊服務經濟價值推估之基礎。本研究採用假設市場評估法之標準化流程，透過行政院主計總處協助進行之全國主力農家隨機代表性抽樣，以訪員親自到訪方式進行問卷資料蒐集，利用有效估計的最小絕對離差法（least absolute deviation, LAD）估計氣象資訊服務對農家之經濟價值。我們的估計結果顯示主力農家使用既有氣象資訊服務所願意支付的費用為每年4,134元～4,307元，因此所實現的總經濟價值估計為每年395.38百萬元～643.97百萬元。另一方面，若以潛在待實現的角度進行評估，則氣象資訊服務應用對臺灣主力農家而言，其待實現潛在經濟價值估計為每年577.66百萬元～941.16百萬元。本研究所得之推估結果一方面可以協助公部門主管機關對後續教育推廣策略之規劃安排，另一方面則有助於私部門了解氣象資訊服務的潛在可開發之市場價值。

關鍵字

氣象資訊服務 ； 經濟價值評估 ； 假設市場評估法 ； 願意支付價格 ； 農糧生產者 ； 主力農家

並列摘要

In this paper, we evaluate agricultural farmers' economic benefit of weather information service provided by the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan. Following the standard procedure of the contingent valuation method, we conducted an in-person survey using a representative sample of major farm households randomly drawn by the Bureau of Census. We applied the method of Least Absolute Deviation (LAD) to estimate farmers' willingness to pay for weather information service. The estimated results show that a farmer is willing to pay 4,134 NTD~4,307 NTD per year for the weather information service and thus the total economic benefits of weather information service is 395.38 million NTD~643.97 million per year. We also evaluate the potential economic benefit that can be realized and find that the benefits of weather information service can reach 577.66 million NTD~941.16 million per year. The results here provide the public sector to improve the educational and extensive strategy in the future and help the private sector to understand the potential market value of weather information services.

並列關鍵字

Meteorological Information Services ； Economic Valuation ； Contingent Valuation Method ； Willingness to Pay ； Agricultural Farmers ； Major Farm Households

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