氣候條件對於臺灣蔬菜批發價格之影響

Effects of Climate Conditions on Wholesale Prices of Vegetables in Taiwan

丁介郁(Chieh-Yu Tin) ； 邱貿凱(Mao-Kai Chiu) ； 官俊榮(Jerome C. Geaun)

《台灣農學會報》 15卷4期 (2014/12) Pp. 422-448

https://doi.org/10.6730/JAAT.201412_15(4).0005

摘要

蔬菜在國人日常飲食中占極重要的地位，臺灣地區的蔬菜由於氣候因素，常常發生蔬菜價格極度波動的現象，而全球氣候變遷中氣候條件之影響當然是重大課題。為維護農民合理的利潤且維持消費者的購買力，如何調節蔬菜生產與供給以維持穩定的價格是農政當局的關鍵措施，而由於蔬菜價格之變動可直接反映蔬菜供給與消費的情況，本文旨在探討探討氣候條件對於批發市場蔬菜交易價格的影響，進行實證分析並研擬因應之策略。本文選擇完全採用電腦拍賣制度，而成交價格最為公正的臺北農產運銷股份有限公司之第一與第二果菜批發市場拍賣交易資料，實證探討蔬菜價格和氣候因素之關係；實證分析就2002年至2009年葉菜類、花果菜類、根莖類、菇菌類、醃製類、進口蔬菜與總蔬菜等七大類，具代表性的蔬菜類價格，利用最小平方法之迴歸估計作為實證模型，探討氣候因素對臺灣地區主要蔬菜消費地七大類蔬菜價格的影響效果。本文實證結果顯示平均溫度、雨量(或者降水日數)、最大瞬間風速等氣候條件，對葉菜類、花果類及根莖類蔬菜價格皆有正向之影響，足以呈現氣候變遷中極端氣候條件之衝擊；本文更發現，進口類蔬菜價格波動情形剛好與其他主要三大類別蔬菜價格相反，並且受氣候條件之影響大致不同方向，這個發現可以支持藉進口蔬菜穩定國內蔬菜價格的政策取向。

關鍵字

氣候條件 ； 批發市場 ； 蔬菜批發價格

並列摘要

Vegetables play a very important role in the daily diet of people in Taiwan, but vegetable prices often fluctuate due to weather factors. In order to ensure reasonable profits for farmers without affecting the purchasing power of consumers, it is important to maintain stable wholesale prices through adjustments in supply and demand of vegetables. This study explores the effects of weather change on wholesale prices of vegetables in Taiwan. By using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method, transaction prices of seven vegetable categories, namely (1) leaf vegetables, (2) flower and fruit vegetables, (3) root vegetables, (4) mushrooms, (5) preserved vegetables, (6) imported vegetables, and (7) overall and other vegetables, obtained from the Taipei Agricultural Products Marketing Co. Ltd. for the years of 2002 to 2009 were analyzed to shed light on the relationships between wholesale prices of vegetables and weather factors. The empirical results show that prices of leaf vegetables, flower and fruit vegetables, and root vegetables are positively related to the major weather factors including temperature, rainfall and wind speed. On the contrary, prices of imported vegetables are inversely related to weather factors, thus supporting the policy of importing vegetables to maintain supply and price stability.

並列關鍵字

weather factor ； wholesale market ； vegetable wholesale prices