北約擴大與俄羅斯的反應

NATO's Enlargement and Russia's Response

龍舒甲(Joshua S. Lung)

《問題與研究》 37卷1期 (1998/01) Pp. 25-40

https://doi.org/10.30390/ISC.199801_37(1).0003

摘要

由於美國對歐洲充滿了感情，因此，她必須與歐洲常保持著緊密關係；又由於美國擔憂俄羅斯的威脅由潛在變為真實，也因此她希望北約依舊維持著圍堵的作用。自一九八九年東歐發生變化起，美國便開始擬訂理論與政策，試圖將其「擴大戰略」推而廣之。不過，當初的厘由頗為含混，主要是忌諱俄羅斯的反彈；等中、東歐的一些國家相繼提出申請加入北約後，美國便推動北約逐步提出宣言、聲明與原則，準備吸收解散後的華約成員國，以成為她們的保護傘。
蘇聯解體之後，俄羅斯的政治、經濟、社會與軍事等情勢一直處於不穩的狀態，一方面令西方憂慮，另方面也讓西方，尤其是美國看準了俄國目前的弱點，順時光推移，對俄羅斯相繼以四個階段開始施展策略。
俄羅斯十分明白北約，尤其是美國的意圖，由起初的認可其擴大，轉而反對，以致最近默許其有限的擴大，不過，俄方也自有其安排與對策，並會於一段時日內，維持雙方相安無事。

關鍵字

北約擴大 ； 俄羅斯 ； 北大西洋合作理事會 ； 和平伙伴關係

並列摘要

The United States is tied to Europe and historically maintains a close relationship with it. The potential threat of Russia has led the United States to expect that NATO can sustain its function of containment. Since the grand transition which took place in Eastern Europe in 1989, the United States has thus begun to formulate theories and policies aiming at the propagation of its “enlargement strategy” to deter such a threat.
When some Central and Eastern European countries started to apply for NATO membership, the United States responded by promoting the organization, issuing declarations, and announcing principles to attract former members of the Warsaw Pact and try to bring them under the protective wing of NATO.
Political, economic, social, and military conditions in Russia since the dissolution of the former Soviet Union have been in a state of uncertainty and instability. This worries the West, but it also gives the United States leverage to push for a four-step enlargement strategy.
Russia is aware of America’s contentions. Originally it acknowledged the possibility of enlargement, but later opposed such a plan. More recently, Moscow has acquiesced to a limited enlargement plan. However, it has also countered this with its own set of measures and policies. These will ensure peace between the two sides for the foreseeable future.

並列關鍵字

NATO enlargement ； the Russian Federation ； North Atlantic Cooperation Council(NACC) ； partnership for peace

參考文獻

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Kugler, Richard L.(1996).Enlarging NATO: The Russia Factor.Santa Monica, CA:RAND.