臺灣地區年齡別婦女有偶率與有偶婦女一般生育率相關及鄉鎮別生育調節實施情形之試探研究

The Production of Marital Fertility in Taiwan-An Exploratory Study

石曜堂(Y. T. Shih) ； 譚開元(K. Y. Tan) ； 林芸芸(Y. Y. Lin) ； 涂醒哲(S. J. Twu)

《Journal of Medical Sciences》 3卷4期 (1980/07) Pp. 1015-1022

摘要

影響生育率的因素複雜，但綜合起來說，一地的生育水平應該受著兩個最主要因素的支配，一為各年齡婦女的結婚人數，一為夫婦為調整子女數所做的生育調節情形。本研究係以臺灣地區361個鄉鎮為分析單位，利用廻歸及殘餘量分析方法（Regression and Residual Analysis）探討1973年間1977年間生育率與（一）年齡別婦女有偶率（Age-Specific percentage of married women）及（二）生育調節實施情形之關係，此分析之自變數（Independent variable）為年齡別婦女有偶率及生育調節實施情形；因變數（Dependent variable）為有偶婦女一般生育率。研究結果顯示各鄉鎮有偶婦女一般生育率之差異98%是由年齡別婦女有偶率的差異所造成。其中尤以15～19歲婦女的有偶率最能決定一個鄉鎮的有偶婦女一般生育率，25～29歲的婦女有偶率也是決定一地生育水平的重要年齡群，30～34歲婦女有偶率對生育率的影響並不顯著但具有意義。比較361個鄉鎮有偶婦女一般生育率之觀察值與估計值的殘餘量趨勢發現大部份山地鄉，澎湖縣及西部的一些鄉鎮有趨正的殘餘量趨勢，顯示這些地區是家庭計劃的高危機地區（High risk area）。

並列摘要

A causual analysis of fertility differential may involve a great number of factors and complicated chains of causation. However, there are two variables, age-specific proportion of married women and fertility regulation, would have important impact on fertility.The relationship of marital fertility to both age-specific percentage of married women and fertility regulation variables were examined in a regression and residual analysis across 361 townships in Taiwan from 1973 to 1977 in this study.In this investigation 98% of the variation in marital fertility is account for by age-specific proportion of married women. Among them, 15-19 and 25-29 age groups appear to be the most important variables which related to the level of marital fertility. Though significant, the impact of 30-34 age group on marital fertility is not shown to be a strong one.In the quest for fertility regulation, it is instructive to compare the townships of the residual trend, i.e. the difference between expected and actual level of marital fertility from 1973 to 1977. Most of the aboriginal and western townships, Penghu County tend to have positive residuals which imply that family planning resources should be adequately allocated to these needy areas.