家計單位人口結構對旅遊消費支出影響之研究－分量迴歸模型之應用

The Effect of Household Demographics on Travel Expenditure: A Quantile Regression Approach

謝淑芬(Shu-Fen Hsieh)

《戶外遊憩研究》 20卷3期 (2007/09) Pp. 47-72

https://doi.org/10.6130/JORS.2007.20(3)3

摘要

台灣地區隨著國民所得及生活品質之提昇，國內外旅遊需求增加，家庭旅遊消費支出亦呈現逐年成長之趨勢。但隨著台灣逐漸邁入「高齡社會」的影響，人口老化的現象亦導致家庭人口結構的改變，而此現象是否將影響到家中旅遊消費支出呢？因此爲瞭解家庭人口結構轉變對家庭旅遊消費支出的影響，本研究以行政院主計處(2003)之「中華民國台灣地區家庭收支暨個人所得分配訪問調查」爲資料來源，分別探討台灣地區家庭國內旅遊、國外旅遊與總旅遊消費支出和家庭社會經濟條件、經濟戶長因素、及家庭人口結構等因素之間的關係。鑑於上述資料間關係非屬線型關係，又爲暸解過高或過低旅遊消費支出分配的影響因素，遂運用分量迴歸(QR)模型加以分析。研究結果顯示：（一）家庭可支配所得、旅遊消費於家計單位總消費支出比仍是影響旅遊消費支出的最主要因素，惟其影響程度並未因分量的增加而呈現遞增現象，甚至出現低分量的影響係數高於高分量。（二）居住地都市化程度、自有房屋、家中汽車數量、戶長年齡與教育程度均與國內外旅遊消費支出呈正向關係，而各分量間的影響程度並不同。（三）家中平均年齡與老年人口比在最小平方法(OLS)與QR分析中對國內外或總旅遊消費支出均呈現顯著的負面影響；而幼年人口比僅在中高分量時始對國內旅遊消費支出呈現負面影響；另扶老比則在高分量處會增加國內旅遊的消費，在中低分量處則增加國外旅遊消費的支出。

關鍵字

旅遊消費 ； 家計單位人口結構 ； 分量迴歸

並列摘要

With the increase in national income and the consequent improvement in the quality of life, travel demands and household travel expenditures are also experiencing a steady upsurge with every passing year. Taiwan is gradually entering an aging society-a trend that is reflected in the country's household demographics. Does this situation have any impact on household travel expenditures? This study, based on data collected from the Taiwan Household survey of 2003, seeks to analyze the effect of an aging population on travel expenditure. The study examines the relationship between travel expenditures, household socioeconomic and demographic trends, and household head variables, respectively. To cope with the nonlinear relationship between the independent variables and the response variables, we used quantile regression to examine the effect of aging on the different levels of the distribution of travel expenditure. The research results show that household disposable income and the ratio of travel expenditure to total household expenditure were the most important factors influencing travel expenditure; however, the level of affect does not increase progressively as we move to the upper quantiles, although the impact in the higher quantiles is greater than that in the lower quantiles. Second, at the regional level, owned home, the number of vehicles, the age of the family head and the level of education have a positive impact on domestic and outbound travel expenditures, although the effects of these variables vary across the different quantiles of the distribution of travel expenditure. Third, the average ages of the members of the households and the number of elders (above the age of 65) have a negative impact on travel expenditure at the mean and low level of quantiles, while the number of children (below the age of 6) has negative impact on domestic travel expenditure in the higher quantiles. While young dependency ratio has a negative impact on domestic travel expenditure in the middle and high quantiles, it increases domestic travel expenditure in the higher quantiles and may also increase outbound travel expenditure in the middle and low quantiles if the old dependency ratio registers an increase.

並列關鍵字

Travel expenditure ； household demographics ； quantile regression

參考文獻

王國欽、陳嘉隆、周淑惠(2002)。老年旅客旅遊行爲之探討。觀光研究學報。8(2)，101-114。

行政院主計處(2003)。中華民國台灣地區家庭收支暨個人所得分配訪問調查。台北:行政院主計處。

行政院經建會(2002)。中華民國台灣91年至140年人口推計。台北:行政院經濟建設委員會。

行政院經建會(2004)。中華民國台灣93年至140年人口推計。台北:行政院經濟建設委員會。

中華民國觀光統計學報