人民幣匯率走勢的探討

Analysis of Renminbi Foreign Exchange Rate Trends

洪淑芬(Shu-Fen Hung)

《中國大陸研究》 42卷1期 (1999/01) Pp. 19-35

https://doi.org/10.30389/MCS.199901_42(1).0004

摘要

一九九七年七月東亞地區國家陸續爆發金融危機以來，中國大陸人民幣仍緊盯美元。而隨著大陸出口成長與經濟成長的明顯減緩，人民幣是否貶值已成為國際性的話題。影響匯率變動的因素很多，除國內、國外經濟性因素外又有政治性因素之考量，各種因素間又存有許多複雜的關係，這些因素有時同時或各別產生作用，其作用或為同向或是相互扺消。由於中國大陸是個人治色彩極濃的國家，其決策模式係「由上到下」型，與西方決策模式的「由下到上」型存有根本差異，較難套用西方的經濟理論或政治機制的分析模式。預料人民幣於一九九九年第二季之前應仍可守不貶值的立場，之後，人民幣匯率是否能繼續維持穩定，則須視大陸經濟衰退的程度和中共當局對總體經濟衰退的承受力、東亞國家經濟復甦程度及其幣值走勢（尤其是日圓）等國際經濟情勢而定。

關鍵字

人民幣 ； 匯率 ； 亞洲金融危機 ； 購買力平價理論 ； 國際收支理論

並列摘要

Since the outbreak of the East Asian financial crisis in July 1997, the Peoples Republic of China's(PRC') currency, the renminbi(RMB), has maintained a constant exchange rate with the U. S. dollar. Following the downturns in PRC exports and financial growth, however, the potential devaluation of the RMB exports and financial growth, however, the potential devaluation of the RMB has become a major concern in the international trade market. There are numerous factors that will affect China's exchange rate; besides domestic and international financial factors, there are also political considerations. The relationship between these aforementioned factors are complex. Moreover, policy making in the PRC is significantly influenced by her elites and is thus fundamentally different from the decision making in the Western countries. It is, therefore, difficult to apply Western financial theories to predict what will happen to the RMB. The RMB should be able to maintain its value, at least before the second term of 1999. However, the degree of recession in the PRC, the capability of PRC officials to handle the recession, the financial recovery of the East Asian countries, and the strength of their currencies especially the Japanese Yen, all may affect the stability of the RMB.

並列關鍵字

Renminbi ； Foreign Exchange Rate ； Asian Financial Crisis ； Theory of Purchasing Power Parity ； The Balance of Payments Theory

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