一九九八年大陸的外貿表現：J曲線效應探討

一九九八年中國大陸出口僅比一九九七年成長0.5%，為十五年來成長幅度最低的一年。同時，中國大陸的進口也有較大幅度的下降，一九九八年全年下降了1.5%，外貿順差435.9億美元，成長7.9%。顯然，一九九八年中國大陸的外貿尚能維持順差主要係來自於進口的下降。東亞國家受金融風暴重創而出現的貨幣貶值效應，理論上是會影醒中國大陸的出口，然而實務上，動亞國家最初由於貨幣貶值所獲之競爭優勢，大多已因其幣值之反彈以及其國內由進口品價格上漲帶來過度的通貨膨脹消耗殆盡；同時大陸內部方面：其出口結構正逐漸朝向高新科技產品調整，且中共當局多次調降利率等行政措施，已部分抵銷東亞國家貨幣貶值對大陸出口造成的壓力。於未來一至二年裏，東亞貨幣貶值對中國大陸外貿的影響將會深刻漸顯現出來，進而使中國大陸經濟維持高速成長有一定的困難。

關鍵字

一九九八年；出口；外貿；J曲線效應；匯率

並列摘要

Although mainland China was not directly involved in the financial crisis that occurred in 1997, the influence of the crisis on China’s exports exceeded the expectations of Chinese Oifficials. From 1997 to 1998, the economic growth rate was only 0.5%, the lowest increase in 15 years. In 1998, mainland China’s imports decreased 1.5%. A favorable trade balance of US＄43.59 billion was achieved. The net growth of the trade surplus was 7.9%. Obviously, this favorable international trade balance was due to the decrease imposts. Mainland China exports would possibly be affected by the currency devaluation resulting from the East Asian financial crisis. However, most of the competitiveness initially gained by those Asian countries that devalued their currencies was quickly lost. This is due not only to a rebound in their currencies, but also to excessive inflation fuelled by rising import prices. At the same time, such adjustments by mainland China as raised interest rates had partially overcome the pressure of the devaluation of East Asian countries’ currencies. In the next one or two years, the devaluation of East Asian currencies will affect mainland’s internal trading, making it difficult to maintain a high economic growth rate in the mainland.