日本對中國大陸直接投資近況之分析：一九九四年至二OOO年

一九七八年以來，中共推動改革開放政策並致力吸引外資，日本企業看上大陸市場潛力及基於其全球經營策略之需要，以及在日本政府對中共經援政策的誘導下，逐漸增加了對大陸直接投資。但是，自九六年以後，至九九年期間，日本對中共直接投資契約額和件數呈逐年萎縮現象，惟實行額除了九八年及九九年第四季以外依舊每年呈現增加。本文就近年來日本對中共直接投資之實際情況、增減原因、大陸投資政策漢投資環境之變化、日資企業在大陸投資困難所在，以及有待雙方政府和民間共同解決的投資課題等，詳加分析；並展望今後日資企業對大陸直接投資的可能發展趨勢。本文研究發現：日本自一九七九年以來，截至九九年底為止，累計已實際對大陸直接投資達二四九‧二億美元，即使不考慮一九七九至二OOO年總共已貸予中共二兆五八O九億日圓的日圓貸款及其他官方和民間銀行融資，也不難想像日本已對中共投注了多少資金和心血，因此本人認為今後日本不致於因政治軍事關係緊張而故意降低雙方的經貿關係。換言之，雙方的高經貿依存度無疑地成了雙方政治關係緊張時的緩衝劑。

關鍵字

直接投資；國際化；全球經濟管理；長期友好關係

並列摘要

Since mainland China adopted reform and opening-up policies and began strenuous effect foreign investment in 1978, Japanese enterprises have gradually increased direct investment in mainland China because of their evaluation of the potential of the mainland Chinese market; their need to implement a global business strategy, and the guidance of Japan’s economic aid policy to mainland China. However, from 1996 to 1999, the number and amount of contracts for direct investment in mainland China declined yearly, although the amount of realized investments continued to increase-except in 1998 and the fourth quarter of 1999. This paper analyzes the actual development of Japan’s direct investment in mainland China and the reasons for the observed changes, Japan’s investment policy regarding mainland China, the changes in mainland China’s investment environment, the difficulties that Japanese enterprises have encountered in investing in mainland China, and the investment problems that need to be solved by the government and the people of both sides. A forecast of the future trend for direct investment by Japanese enterprises in mainland China is included. The study shows that from 1979 to the end of 1999, the actual direct investments of Japanese enterprises in mainland China reached as high as US＄24,92 billion. Even if the 2,580.9 billion yen in government loans and loans by other government-run and private banks to mainland China from 1979 to 2000 are not taken into consideration, Japan has already invested much time and money in mainland China. The high degree of economic interdependence between the two has undoubtedly become a buffer for political tensions between Japan and mainland China.