大陸通貨緊縮型經濟增長之分析

由於亞洲金融危機、全球性生產過剩與價格下跌的影響，以及大陸經濟增長週期性波動、體制改革與結構調整而發生的結構性有效需求不足和供給調整，使得大陸經濟近年呈現通貨緊縮型的經濟增長；之間兩三年，GDP的增加額有將近一半是由存貨增加所致。九○年代來，存貨投資的增長加速了GDP中資本形成總額投資的增加；而導致大陸通貨緊縮的投資增長減緩、供需結構失衡、和產業結構調整，則是造成存貨持續上升的主因。由於大陸當局持續實施擴張性的宏觀經濟政策，加上亞洲各國經濟回穩，大陸通貨緊縮的強度已大為減弱，經濟增長率出現恢復性增長。鑒此，大陸應繼續實施積極的財政政策和相應貨幣政策為核心的擴張性宏觀調控政策，以保政策效應的連續性，鞏固經濟增長。

關鍵字

經濟增長；通貨緊縮；宏觀經濟

並列摘要

The economy of Mainland China has is now experiencing deflationary economic growth because of the Asian financial crisis, the influence of global over-production and dropping of prices, the lengthening of the economic fluctuation cycle, the appearance of insufficient demand, and the adjustment of supply due to systemic reform and structural adjustment. Inventory has been the cause of half of the GDP increases during the past two to three years. Since the last decade, increases of investment in inventory have facilitated the growth of capital investment. Regression of investment growth due to deflation, imbalance of supply and demand, and adjustment of the industrial structure are the main causes behind the sustaines increases of inventory. Because Beijing has continuously adopted an the expanded macro-economic policy, the strength of deflation has been dramatically decreased. Economic growth has been revitalized. In order to maintain the continuity of the economic policy and to consolidate economic growth, the Mainland Chinese should continuously carry out active fiscal and monetary policy as the core of expanded macro-economic regulation policy.