中國大陸人口就業城市化趨勢與展望

China's Population and Employment: Trends and Outlook

耿慶武(C. W. Kenneth Keng)

《中國大陸研究》 44卷11期 (2001/11) Pp. 37-65

https://doi.org/10.30389/MCS.200111_44(11).0003

摘要

本文試圖以實證經濟研究方法分析與展望影響中國大陸經濟發展至鉅的人口與就業趨勢，並對大陸城市與鄉村以及各區域的人口、就業、就業結構、失業率及城市化程度，以簡便數量方法加以分析研究與預測。本研究預估大陸總人口將成長至二○四○年代初期的十五億六千萬人後，逐漸減少；但因自一九八○年代即開始的出生率的顯著下降與老齡人口的增加，大陸勞動人口將在二○二○年代初期即出現負成長。此一人口結構變化趨勢明顯指出大陸長期經濟持續發展的關鍵在於如何提升其總體生產力，以彌補未來漸減的勞動人口必須養活漸增的非勞動人口現象。對於大陸全國失業率的估計，本研究參考應用各種估計方法、假設與資料，而計算出大陸在一九九六年時的全國總失業率應介於14%與23%之間。城市失業率應較接近此總失業率的下限，而農村失業率應尤高於全國總失業率的上限！

關鍵字

人口成長 ； 就業 ； 失業率 ； 勞動人口 ； 城鄉人口與就業 ； 城市化趨勢

並列摘要

This paper applies economic empirical study methods to investigate China's population and employment growth and predict their future trends. It also adopts various approaches to estimate China's unemployment rate and finds that China's unemployment rate was between 14% and 23% in the mid-1990s. The paper further probes China's urban and rural subpopulations. These sectoral analyses provide essential knowledge concerning China's labor force growth and urbanization rate, information that is imperative for predicting China's future long-term economic growth. Results show that China's population will keep growing, at a decelerating rate, until the early 2040s to a maximum of about 1.6 billion. China's labor force growth will slow, however, at an even faster rate than that of population growth. It would diminish to rates lower than population growth in the late 2010s and will become negative before 2025. This indicates that China will probably experience 20 years of ”a diminishing workforce producing for an escalating population” from the early 2020s to at least the middle of the 2040s. How to raise China's macroeconomic productivity is then imperative issue for to China's future sustained economic growth.

並列關鍵字

Population and labor force ； growth predictions ； unemployment rate estimates ； urbanization trend ； economic growth

參考文獻

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