論中共嚇阻美軍介入台海衝突的軍事準備及其影響

Assessing China's Military Preparation for Countering US Involvement in the Taiwan Strait

林長盛(Chang-Sheng Lin) ； 牛銘實(Emerson M. S. Niou)

《中國大陸研究》 46卷6期 (2003/11) Pp. 59-73

https://doi.org/10.30389/MCS.200311_46(6).0003

摘要

美國介入台海衝突的基本前提是它有足夠的軍事力量和決心來嚇阻中共。
然而，近幾年來，隨著中共國力和軍力不斷成長，軍事上的準備行動清晰可
見。除了常規戰的準備外，中共也在嚐試將核威懾和常規戰結合，已遏制戰
爭發生或制止戰爭升級。中共這些軍事準備不是為了能戰而勝之，而是希望能不戰而屈人之4兵。因為當中共對美的軍事威脅逐漸強大時，在其它條件
不變的情況下，美國介入台灣衝突的意願將會減低。為了能對中共近年來的
軍事準備又更深入的了解，本文對中共現階段軍事戰略演變作一介紹和分析；
並對中共核軍力建設動向及其核軍力進行評估；最後，我們討論中共武戰略思維對美國軍事介入台海衝突可能產生的影響。

關鍵字

台海衝突軍事嚇阻核威懾中美三台三角關係

並列摘要

During the March 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, the surprised China whenpresident Clinton decided to dispatch two aircraft carriers battle groups to the Taiwan Strait area, signaling US resolve to ensure a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue. Immediately after the crisis, the US and Japan signed te Japan-U.S. joint Declaration on Security, which the Chinese government interpreted as an attempt by the US to contain China. Was further shockef to learm from the release of the Nuclear Posture Review, a secret
report presented in December 2001 by the US Department to Congress, that the US might use nuclear weapons against China in an “immediate”contingency involving“a military confrontation over the status of Taiwan.”In response to the US moves to deter or to contain China, China began to re-Evaluate its national security priorities and in particular how to prevent US Intervention into the Taiwan Strait. US military superiority is the obvious Reason why the US has been successful in intervening in the Taiwan Strait Over the past 50 years. However, in recent years concerns of a “China threat”Have become increasingly evident in American policy circles. These anxieties Stem from the fact that China has indeed prepared itself in case another Taiwan
Strait crisis occurs. Tf China can convince the US that it is too costly to Intervene in another China-Taiwan crisis, then status quo in the Taiwan Strait will shift considerably in China’s favor. This paper assesses China’s Military preparation, including both conventional and nuclear forces, for
Countering US involvement in the Taiwan Strait.

並列關鍵字

Taiwan Strait Crisis ； China's Nuclear Deterrence ； the US Security Commitment

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