中共“對台用武”政策過程中地方理性抉擇之反應

本文屬預測性之研究，其目的乃試圖以中央與地方策略互動之分析架構為基礎，分析當大陸中央政府的對台政策轉為武力攻台時各省的可能反應。本研究發現：理論上的八種可能反應，僅出現五種。對台灣最有利的「有心有力有效型」僅有4省市，佔總數的12.9%。對台灣第二有利的「有心有力無效型」，更只有2個省市，佔6.5%。最值得台灣爭取支持的「無心有力有效型」，共有8個省市，佔25.8%。為數最多的是「無心有力無效型」，共有11個省市，佔35.5%。對台灣助益最小的為「無心無力無效型」，共有6個省市，佔19.4%。至於未出現的類型則為「有心無力有效型」、「有心無力無效型」與「無心無力有效型」。

關鍵字

對台政策；中央與地方關係；理性抉擇制度論；有心有力有效型

並列摘要

This is a predictive research. Based on framework of analysis of the strategic interactions between central and local levels, we ask how the provinces would act upon a change of central policy toward the use of force against Taiwan. This research found out only five out of eight types would appear. There are only four provinces which display the most advantageous characteristics toward Taiwan; the ”have desire, possess ability and make effect” type, 12.9% of total.. The ”have desire and ability but no effect” type, two provinces, are only 6.5% of the total. The most worthy type for Taiwan to gain support from is the ”no desire, possess ability and make effect” type, as they total eight provinces, or 25.8% of the total. Most are the ”no desire, possess ability and no effect” type, a total of eleven provinces, or 35.5%. There are six provinces which are the ”no desire, no ability nor effect” type, the less advantageous type for Taiwan, at 19.34%. However, there are no ”have desire, no ability but make effect” type, ”have desire, no ability nor effect” type and ”no desire and ability but make effect” type.