以模糊邏輯評比住宅投資案之研究

A Suudy on Real Estate Investing Decisions via Fuzzy Inference Systems

黃克明(Ko-Ming Huang) ； 曾俊達(Chun-Ta Tzeng) ； 晁立中(Li-Chung Chao)

《中國土木水利工程學刊》 25卷2期 (2013/06) Pp. 171-181

https://doi.org/10.6652/JoCICHE.201306_25(2).0008

摘要

住宅建築開發商投入一個住宅個案之資金相當龐大，因此，如何客觀地評估、比較及選擇合適之投資個案，一直是業者所重視之課題。本文選擇九個較易供投資個案客觀比較之因子，經過因素分析及因子縮減，歸納出基地條件、專案條件二個構面及基地周圍環境、公共設施完善度、交通便利性、平面配置與格局、可用容積、可售單價、購地成本共七個評估影響因子，以此建構出本研究之模糊層級。本研究先以二個模糊推論系統（Fuzzy Inference Systems，FIS）分別計算出基地條件與專案條件之模糊輸出值，再以此二個FIS之輸出值為第三個FIS之輸入值，可以得到個案之總模糊評分。本研究以三個候選個案為例，藉以評估出總模糊評分較佳，值得投資興建之候選個案，研究結果提供建築開發商於評估投資興建住宅決策之參考。

關鍵字

模糊邏輯 ； 住宅 ； 層級分析法 ； 隸屬函數

並列摘要

For residential property developers, huge investments are needed for a single case, so objectively evaluating and choosing a suitable case in which to invest has become an important issue in the real estate field. Through factor analysis and factor reduction methods, the author has chosen nine objective factors for readers to use to evaluate their cases: Construction, base and surroundings factors (the base condition and the project condition), the public facilities rate, the traffic convenience, the floor plan and format, the available plot ratio, the available price and finally the cost. Based on those factors, the author produces a fuzzy analytic hierarchy for this study. In this paper, the author uses two fuzzy inference systems (FIS) to calculate two fuzzy output values, the base condition and the project condition, respectively. Then the author uses these two FIS output values as an input value to calculate the third FIS, and a fuzzy evaluation for the project is eventually produced. In this research, the fuzzy evaluations three investment cases are compared to find which one is the best case for investors. When making decisions regarding real estate investing, it is hoped that residential property developers will find this study to be a useful reference.

並列關鍵字

fuzzy logic ； residence ； analytic hierarchy process ； membership function