應用季節性預報資訊於乾旱時期鳳山溪流域地下水變化探討

SIMULATION TO INCORPORATE SEASONAL OUTLOOK AND HYDROLOGICAL MODEL DURING DROUGHT PERIOD IN THE FENGSHAN CREEK BASIN

盧德瑋(De-Wei Lu) ； 石棟鑫(Dong-Sin Shih) ； 吳瑞賢(Ray-Shyan Wu)

《中國土木水利工程學刊》 33卷1期 (2021/03) Pp. 35-44

https://doi.org/10.6652/JoCICHE.202103_33(1).0004

摘要

為有效進行乾旱時期地下水資源管理，本研究利用氣候預報資訊結合水文模式，模擬地下水季節性變化狀況。本研究選定新竹縣鳳山溪流域作為研究區域，以近年乾旱事件作為探討，採用中央氣象局發布之季長期天氣展望，結合氣象合成模式（WGEN）繁衍降雨資料，輸入至水文模式WASH123D模擬季節性地下水位之預測。研究結果顯示降雨預報準確與否，會直接影響未來季節性地下水位預估的準確度，在季節預報結果與實際區間相同的情況下，多可以掌握地下水位變化趨勢，故利用季長期天氣展望預估地下水位之方法，可提供有效的訊息以供地下水資源管理之應用。

關鍵字

乾旱 ； 季節性預報 ； WASH123D ； 地下水位

並列摘要

In order to effectively manage groundwater resources during the dry periods, this study proposed a methodology to incorporate seasonal forecasting with hydrological models as inputs to simulate the seasonal variation of groundwater. The research area comprised mainly of Fengshan Creek basin (250 km^2) in northern Taiwan. In addition, the drought events in recent years were our major focus. Hence the seasonal outlook, issued by Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan (CWB), was incorporated with weather generator (WGEN) and used as inputs for WASH123D to simulate the groundwater level. The results showed that, the accuracy of rainfall forecasting directly affects that of seasonal variation of groundwater level. The variation trends of groundwater level could be predicted as the seasonal outlook is in the interval of gauge observations. In short, this study indicated that, the proposed approach provided valuable information for groundwater resource management.

並列關鍵字

drought period ； seasonal outlook ； WASH123D ； groundwater level