崩潰年代：1948

民國37年(1948)，是戰後國共戰爭進入第三個年頭。這年9月8日至13日，毛澤東在西柏坡主持召開的中共中央政治局會議上報告指出：「五年左右根本打倒國民黨。」這五年的計算是從1946年7月算起，即是還有兩年的時間。但是到了1948年9、10月間，共軍攻下濟南、錦州後，毛氏又把五年的時間提前一年，「大概只需一年左右的時間即可達到了」。亦即到1949年10月左右，就可以「從根本上推翻國民黨統治」。毛氏的估計，可謂準確。但蔣介石在元旦文告為鎮定人心，申言「消滅匪軍有形力量，終可在一年內完成。至於各地散匪，須待有形的匪軍消滅以後，再加上一年或二年的時間，方能澈底肅清。」到了濟南、錦州失陷以後，社會、政治、經濟、外交與人心動搖。到了年底，華中「勦匪」總司令白崇禧自漢口電蔣，促與共方言和，實即要蔣下野。於是要蔣下野與共言和的呼聲，此起彼落。這年最後一天的除夕，蔣集黨內要員座談，首先宣讀明日元旦文告，其中有「個人進退出處，無所縈懷」之語“有垂涕泣而道者，有慟哭失聲者。這是軍事、政治、經濟、社會已臨崩潰情勢。本文題日〈崩潰年代〉，是就國民黨方面1948年的軍事、財經、黨政與人心的崩潰情形，期作進一步的探討。對日八年抗戰，國力消耗至鉅，民窮財盡，人民流離失所，無不渴望和平，厭懼戰爭。中共掌握此種心理，倡導和平，反對內戰，而又以和備戰，國民黨則是以戰逼和，和既不能，戰爭愈演愈烈，進至1948年，內戰已達三年，國方已是精疲力竭，士氣消沉，每戰皆北；尤其遼瀋、淮海、平津三大戰役之敗，精銳盡失，不堪再戰。而共方則以戰勝之威，士氣旺盛，必欲奮戰到底。國方復以金融崩潰，物價飛漲，人民痛苦已到極限。蔣介石成為眾矢之的，以為只要蔣氏下野，和平立可實現。反蔣倒蔣之聲為之升高，共黨與黨外人士倡之於先，黨內同志應之於後，裏應外合，毛澤東完成打倒蔣介石和國民黨的工作，便指日可待了。

關鍵字

蔣介石；遼瀋戰役；淮海戰役；平津戰役；法幣改革

並列摘要

In the year 1948, the Chinese Civil War between the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) entered its third year. At the CCP Politburo meeting in Xihopo from September 8th to 13th, 1948, Chairman Mao Zedong announced that he was going to completely defeat the KMT within five years. The five years Mao referred to began in July 1946, meaning that there were two years left at that time. After the Communists' capture of the cities of Jinan and of Jinzhou in September and in October, 1948 respectively, Mao declared that it would take only a year for the CCP to overthrow the KMT rule. His judgment could be considered accurate indeed.To calm the public, Chiang Kai-Shek asserted in his New Year's Announcement that, ”In a year, the main armed force of the Communists will be taken over. As for the remnants of the CCP all over the country, it will require another one or two years to root out.” However, the loss of Jinan and Jinzhou severely undermined people's confidence in Chiang socially, politically and economically, as well as in terms of foreign diplomacy.Towards the end of 1948, in a telegram sent from Hankou, General Bai Chongxi, the Central China Pacification Director, urged Chiang to hold peace talks with the Communists and suggested that Chiang ought to step down from his current position. Such a demand quickly spread. On December 31st, 1948, Chiang called a meeting of leading KNIT members. When Chiang expressed his desire to retire, some of the members wept, and some were choked with tears.The downfall was overall-militarily, politically, economically, and socially. This paper, entitled ”the Age of Collapse”, aims to explore the catastrophic situations of the KMT in 1948. After eight years of the War against Japan, the country lost its strength and wealth, and people were weary of war. Taking advantage of this mindset among the general public, the CCP called for peace while preparing for war. The KMT on the contrary fought the war in order to reach peace. The exhausted KMT army was defeated in the major campaigns of Liaoshen, Huaihai, Pingjin, etc. With financial crisis and deflation, the situation of the KMT further deteriorated. Chiang Kai-Shek became a target of public criticism, at first by the Commmunists and eventually by his KMT comrades. Mao's goal to overthrow the power of Chiang and of the KMT was then close at hand.