析論蔣中正在中國抗日戰爭初期的戰略指導

中國抗日戰爭最重要的戰略指導是什麼?一般認為導引日軍作戰線改變最重要。日軍侵華的主力在華北，任其繼續從北向南沿平漢鐵路攻占武漢，可先截斷國軍補給線，再迫中國決戰，對國軍極為不利。國軍迫其由東向西沿長江仰攻武漢，雙方形成正面作戰，可逐步引敵深入內陸，利於中國持久作戰。惟是否確有這項戰略，由於史證不足，長期以來是個爭議性的問題。本文經由史料探證，發現國民政府於1935年進入四川時，已經訂下這項戰略。1937年1月頒布作戰計畫並於8月發動淞滬會戰時付諸實施，迫使日軍主力從華北轉移到華東。1938年徐州會戰，日軍主力更向華東集中。會戰末期，黃河決堤，阻礙日軍重回平漢線的攻擊路線，作戰線遂被迫改變，形成主力由東向西沿長江流域作戰。抗日戰爭從日本所希望的速戰速決，導向中國策劃的持久作戰。這項戰略的達成，從策定構想、提出指導、完成計畫、發動戰爭及淞滬、徐州兩次會戰的實踐，歷時3年，奠定中國持久戰爭的基礎。蔣中正認為此係抗戰全局最重要的戰略指導。

關鍵字

蔣中正；淞滬會戰；作戰線；徐州會戰；抗日戰爭

並列摘要

What was to be the most significant strategic guideline for China during the Sino-Japanese war? There has been a belief that China's most important strategy during the Sino-Japanese War was to divert the Japanese army's Operational Line. Since the Japanese main force was positioned in northern China, it would have been extremely disadvantageous to China's national army if the Japanese army was allowed to attack and occupy Wuhan from the North along the Pinghan Railway, as this would cut off the supply line of the national army and force them to engage in a reluctant decisive battle. On the other hand, it would be advantageous for China to conduct a protracted war if the national army could have compelled the Japanese army to attack Wuhan from the East along the Yangtze River, as this would engage them in a frontal war against the national army who would then lure them to move further inland step by step. However, whether or not there was actually such a strategic plan has long been a controversial issue due to lack of historical evidence. Through an exhaustive exploration and verification of key historical materials, this paper has confirmed that the Nationalist Government had formulated the strategy as it moved into Sichuan Province in 1935. In January of 1937, the Nationalist Government announced an operational plan to launch the Songhu Campaign in August, which successfully forced the main body of the Japanese army to move southwards to eastern China. Later in 1938, the Nationalist Government launched the Xuzhou Campaign, which forced even more Japanese troops to gather up in eastern China. In the final stage of the Xuzhou Campaign, when the Yellow River banks happened to burst out, causing turbid flows to hinder the Japanese army from returning to the Pinghan Railway. Consequently, the Japanese army was forced to change its Operational line and moving its main force from Eastern to Western to fight the National army along the Yangtze River. At the end, the tone of the Sino-Japanese War was turned from a deliberately conducted blitzkrieg strategy wished by Japan to a protracted war initiated by China. The accomplishment of this strategic plan, which lasted three years with stages including concept formation, provision of directions, plan completion, and engagement of the Songhu and Xuzhou Campaigns, did lay the foundation for China's hoped-for protracted war. Chiang Kai-shek believed that, in terms of the overall situation, this strategic plan was the most significant one in the course of the whole Sino-Japanese War.