Landslide Impact Assessment Using Projection Rainfall Data from Climate Change Scenario

Tingyeh Wu ； Hung-Ju Shih ； Hsin-Chi Li ； Yuan-Fong Su ； Yung-Ming Chen

《Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences》 27卷5期 (2016/10) Pp. 729-740

https://doi.org/10.3319/TAO.2016.07.18.03

摘要

This study ascertains landslide impact under climate change. The disaster impact under climate change was estimated by calculating the variation in safety factor (FS value). The result shows less landslide impact for the late 21^(st) century (2075 - 2099) than in the late 20^(th) century (1979 - 2003). The relationship between rainfall characteristics and landslide susceptibility was then clarified. A total of 40 out of 82 typhoon events from the late 20^(th) century and 40 out of 88 events from the late 21^(st) century were selected for estimating landslide impact. The landslide ratio in each event is calculated to find the variation in landslide occurrence between the late 20^(th) and the late 21^(st) century. The result proved that landslide occurrence is highly dependent on the rainfall characteristics. Landslides occurred earlier during each rainfall event for the late 21^(st) century, which is consistent with rainfall characteristics, e.g., high intensity and short duration, for the late 21^(st) century.

關鍵字

Shallow landslide ； Climate change ； Scenario simulation ； Landslide ratio ； Sediment volume