已購屋者及購屋搜尋者之購屋需求決策比較分析－兼論顯示性偏好及敘述性偏好之差異

Comparative Analysis of the Housing Purchase Decision-Making Processes of Home- Buyers and Potential Home-Buyers: The Difference between Revealed Preference and Stated Preference

朱芳妮(Fang-Ni Chu) ； 張金鶚(Chin-Oh Chang) ； 陳淑美(Shu-Mei Chen)

《都市與計劃》 35卷4期 (2008/12) Pp. 339-359

https://doi.org/10.6128/CP.35.4.339

摘要

有鑑於過去因供過於求的房地產市場失衡狀態所帶來的長期不景氣，家戶的購屋決策行爲是市場需求面分析的重要課題之一。本研究之主要目的係比較已購屋者與購屋搜尋者在購屋決策與意向上的異同。實證結果顯示，台北縣市已購屋者與購屋搜尋者雖然有相同的決策模式，但購屋影響因素與決策過程不盡相同。因此不論是使用已購屋者或購屋搜尋者的資料來推估及預測市場需求，在前者資料僅能反映過去的市場需求以及後者資料沒有進行內、外在影響因素的調整與修正等情況下，均將產生預測上的偏誤。由此可知，未來若可透過兩種資料偏好的結合以及對於外在環境因素的情境模擬預測，應可建立較客觀的購屋需求預測模型，以提供有益資訊給房地產業者及購屋者參考。

關鍵字

購屋決策模式 ； 巢式羅吉特模式 ； 顯示性偏好 ； 敘述性偏好

並列摘要

As housing oversupply can cause a slump in real estate markets, housing purchase behavior is a main topic in housing demand research. This study uses data for home- buyers and potential homebuyers in the same period to analyze housing purchase decision-making models, and compare similarities and dissimilarities between them. Empirical results demonstrate that although decision-making patterns of these two groups are the same, the impacts of explanatory factors differ, and do their decision-making processes. Regardless of which data set is used to forecast housing purchase behavior and market demand, the prediction will be biased because data for home- buyers only covers the past market demand and the data for potential home-buyers merely covers behavior patterns without adjustments or amendments for the influence of internal and external factors. Consequently, by combining the housing purchase preferences of these two groups and considering the influence of external factors for scenario simulations and forecasting analyses, an objective housing purchase forecasting model can be constructed. This model will be a reference for real estate developers, home- buyers and potential home- buyers.

並列關鍵字

Housing purchase decision-making model ； Nested logit model ； Revealed reference ； Stated preference

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