都市異速增長規律之發展變化與啟示－臺灣都市社會經濟互動的實證分析

Urban Allometric Growth in Taiwan Cities - An Empirical Analysis of Developmental Changes and Implications of Socioeconomic Interaction

黃仲由(Jhong-You Huang)

《都市與計劃》 44卷2期 (2017/06) Pp. 191-222

https://doi.org/10.6128/CP.44.2.191

摘要

過去關於都市社會經濟互動的異速增長規律（allometric scaling law）的研究熱潮，雖成功地從較高層次的總體結果，洞悉了生命系統與都市發展之間令人驚奇的相似特徵，但卻忽略了生物異速增長規律應用在都市社會經濟現象所可能體現的複雜性（organized complexity）與發展變化。另一方面，過去研究在面對都市典型病症和都市財富創造之異速增長規律時，始終沒有提出任何具體的因應措施或良好指引，以緩解集體層次的都市典型病症之異速增長幅度，或者強健集體層次的都市財富創造之異速增長幅度。為填補前述第一個學術缺口，本研究首先擬基於臺灣地區自1991年至2010年期間之既有統計數據集，檢驗過往研究熱潮所倡議之都市社會經濟互動的異速增長規律，再試圖探析該普適規律究竟是否隨時間而變化。本研究發現：由都市代理人主動激發的社會經濟互動或社會經濟量，其異速增長規律普遍隨時間發展而變化，並非如同生物性狀或生命節奏般恆定。最後，為填補前述第二個學術缺口，本研究採用灰色關聯分析模型，併同已求得的臺灣都市社會經濟互動的異速增長規律之發展變化，嘗試連結都市集體層次與都市個體層次，提出改善或優化都市生活品質和都市社會經濟互動之優先性排序與科學評選，以作為公共部門或都市治理單位改善都市社會經濟互動及都市生活品質之規劃指引與執行策略，並有助於促進整個都市體系之社會經濟互動，趨向更為永續的和更為理想的異速增長模式。

關鍵字

都市發展 ； 異速增長規律 ； 複雜性 ； 灰色關聯分析

並列摘要

Recent applications of allometric scaling law in urban socioeconomic interaction have been highly successful and have provided insights into the surprising similiarities between living systems and urban development. However, these studies have not examined the organized complexity and developmental changes that may arise when applying allometric scaling law to urban socioeconomic phenomena. Furthermore, no studies that have used allometric scaling law to analyze common urban illnesses and urban wealth creation have proposed concrete response measures or guidelines for mitigating the urban allometric growth of common illnesses or strengthening the urban allometric growth of wealth creation at the aggregate level. To fill these research gaps, this study applied allometric scaling law to urban socioeconomic interaction, as proposed during the previous surge in research, by examining existing statistical data sets collected in Taiwan between 1991 and 2010. This study then analyzed changes in the abovementioned universal law over time. The analytical results showed that the socioeconomic interactions actively initiated by urban agents generally reflect allometric growth patterns that develop and change over time, unlike the more constant patterns observed in biological traits and rhythms. This study also attempted to link urban data (on the basis of developmental changes in the allometric growth patterns of urban socioeconomic interactions in Taiwan) at the aggregate and individual levels by using the grey relational analysis method, and proposed a prioritization order and scientifically-based selection method for improving or optimizing urban quality of life and urban socioeconomic interactions. Hopefully, these data can be used by public institutions or urban governance units to develop planning guidelines and implementation strategies for improving urban socioeconomic interactions and urban quality of life and also for promoting promote socioeconomic interactions in urban systems so that a sustainable and ideal allometricgrowth pattern can be achieved.

並列關鍵字

Urban development ； Allometric scaling law ； Organized complexity ； Grey relational analysis

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