氣候變遷對亞太地區農產貿易的影響

李慕真 ； 徐世勳

《經濟研究》 36卷1期 (1999/01) Pp. 63-104

摘要

本文採用全球貿易(GTAP)一般均衡分析模型，配合GTAP第四版資料庫和APEC地區農產品貿易之相關資料，引用Rosenzweig和Iglesias(1994)氣候變遷對農作物生産力影響的資料，以台灣爲重點，來分析全球氣候變遷對亞太地區農産貿易的衝擊，並比較傳統部份均衡分析和一般均衡分析對福利水準推估的差異。未來若能將農民因應氣候變遷所做的適應性行爲納入模型中，將更能準確的評估氣候變遷對亞太地區農産貿易的影響。

關鍵字

全球氣候變遷 ； 全球貿易分析 ； 農產貿易 ； 可計算一般均衡分析

並列摘要

This article uses the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model and its Version-4 data base to explores the economic effects of global climate change with emphasis on agricultural trade in APEC region. It also investigates the possible differences between partial equilibrium welfare measures and general equilibrium welfare impacts due to climate change. The problem on overestimating the damages from climate change might be avoided if the myriad adaptations that farmers might make to climate are further modelled explicitly.

並列關鍵字

Global cimate change ； GTAP ； agricultural trade ； CGE

參考文獻

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Adams, R. M., Rosenzweig, C., Peart, R. M., McCarl, B. A., Glyer, J. D., Curry, R. B., Jones, J. W., Boote, K. J., Allen, J. H. Jr.(1990).Global Climate Change and US Agriculture.Nature.345(6272)

Adams, R., Fleming, R., Change, C., McCarl, B., Rosenzweig, C.(1995).A Reassessment of the Economic Effects of Global Climate Change in US Agriculture.Climate Change.30

Adams, R., Glyer, D., McCarl, B.(1989).The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change in the United States: Report to Congress.Washington, DC:US Environmental Protection Agency.