能源使用、能源效率與CO2排放之關聯性分析

張四立 ； 施欣錦

《經濟研究》 37卷2期 (2001/07) Pp. 85-114

摘要

自工業革命以來，人類大量使用化石能源，造就了經濟的快速發展，但其間大量釋放出之二氧化碳及其他溫室氣體，使大氣中的二氧化碳濃度在過去的150年間，已自270ppm增至350ppm。因此欲抑制二氧化碳排放、同時兼顧經濟發展的潜力，我們須由能源供需求行爲的管理著手，尋求有效的政策工具，以提昇能源效率。本文從能源需求行爲的解析出發，首先應用因素分解法對我國終端能源使用及CO2排放行爲進行瞭解，以檢視經濟産出、能源密集度、能源使用型態及産業結構等因素與CO2排放的關聯。然後結合模糊理論與多目標决策方法，建構模糊多目標數學規劃模式，進行能源使用、能源效率改善與CO2排放的政策模擬分析，以推導不同程度能源效率改善目標之設定所導致之CO2减量效果。

關鍵字

能源使用 ； 能源效率 ； CO2排放 ； 因素分解法 ； 模糊多目標數學規劃法

並列摘要

During past 150 years the use of fossil fuels has made mankind a dominating factor in the greenhouse effect, which causes CO2 concentration in the atmosphere increasing from 270ppm to 350ppm. This situation calls for immediate and prudent policy tools to effectively cut down the GHG emissions at the same time allowing the potential economic development to be proceeded. It is then the main purpose of this paper to examine energy consumption by applying factor decomposition method to the end use behavior of energy demand and CO2 emission in Taiwan. The findings regarding the linkage between energy use, economic output and CO2 emission are then be modeled by an integrated MODM model, in which fuzzy theory is adopted to handle the uncertainties of the CO2 emission constraints. Policy simulations regarding energy conservation technologies as well as efficiency potentials in energy use are conducted and the effectiveness of possible policy tools are evaluated.

並列關鍵字

energy consumption ； energy efficiency ； CO2 emission ； factor decomposition ； fussy MODM

參考文獻

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