消費與租稅均攤的跨期恆常所得模型：台灣經常帳與預算赤字之實證研究

An Intertemporal Permanent Income Model with Consumption and Tax Smoothing: An Empirical Study of Taiwan's Current Account and Budget Deficit

祁玉蘭(Yih-Luan Chyi) ； 趙欣儀 (Hsin-yih Chao)

《經濟論文》 29卷2期 (2001/06) Pp. 251-295

https://doi.org/10.29628/AEP.200106.0002

摘要

本文同時考慮消費者與政府的最適化行為，並建立一個消費與租稅均攤並存的經常帳與預算赤字模型，進而試圖瞭解台灣的經常帳與預算赤字的關係。我們發現在消費與租稅均攤假說下，經常帳的變動除了和預算赤字有關外，亦與預期未來所得成長率有重要關聯。當預期未來所得成長改變，經常帳與預算赤字並不一定有一對一的完全負向關係。這樣的結果或許更能解釋我們觀察到有關經常帳與預算餘額的變動存在各種可能組合的現象。我們的實證結果顯示台灣的淨儲蓄率資料支持消費與租稅均攤假說，且當比較實際與理論的淨儲蓄率時，我們亦發現除了統計配適度外，本文提出的模型之經濟配適度亦相當顯著。

關鍵字

消費均攤 ； 租稅均攤 ； Barro- Ricardian對等 ； 跨式限制 ； 概似比率檢定

並列摘要

Considering both consumer and government optimization behaviors, this paper constructs a model of Taiwan's current account and budget deficits. The relation between Taiwan's current account and budget deficit is explained under the framework emphasizing consumption as well as tax smoothing. We find that changes in the current account have important relations not only with budget deficits, but also with expected future income growth. The current account does not necessarily change one-to-one with budget deficits when consumers have expected changes in future income growth. This result allows us to explain many possible combinations of changes in current accounts and budget deficits that we have observed. The results of our empirical study show that net saving rates in Taiwan support both consumption smoothing and tax smoothing hypotheses. Comparing actual and theoretical net saving rates, we also find that aside from the statistical fitness, the model we construct in this paper has significant economic fitness.

並列關鍵字

Consumption smoothing ； Tax smoothing ； Barro-Richardian equivalence ； Crossequation restrictions ； Likelihood ratio test

參考文獻

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