台灣汽車保險風險分類之實證分析

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF RISK CLASSIFICATION IN THE TAIWANESE AUTOMOBILE INSURANCE MARKET

彭盛昌(Sheng-Chang Peng) ； 利菊秀(Chu-Shiu Li) ； 劉純之(Chwen-Chi Liu)

《經濟論文》 47卷2期 (2019/06) Pp. 297-338

摘要

本文主要檢驗汽車保險現行採用及額外之風險因子是否為有效的風險分類？以台灣全體產險公司自用小客車三種車體損失險保單為研究對象，建立不同風險因素組合的預測模型，估計其預測變數係數，再透過估計之預測模型進行樣本內與樣本外的預測，以確認預測模型的準確性。本文的實證結果顯示，在現行採用的訂價風險因素，甲式保單顯示理賠係數是相對重要的風險分類因素；乙式保單則是理賠係數與從車因素；丙式保單則是被保險人的年齡。其次，在額外的風險分類分析，本文發現甲式及乙式保單均顯示前一保單年度的理賠經驗是重要的風險分類資訊，此意謂前三年的理賠係數應給予前一年之理賠經驗給予相對較高的權重，如此保費的訂定或許可以達到更公平。由於目前在實務上，三種保單的定價因素都相同，尤其在費率自由化之後，本文的實證結果，可建議保險公司進行實際的風險分類規劃時，針對不同保單可以考量不同的核保或訂價因素之參考依據，進行有效風險分類差異化的費率創新。

關鍵字

汽車保險 ； 風險分類 ； 理賠預測

並列摘要

This study examines whether the characteristics of risk classification are effective by developing different models to predict claim occurrences. We use three unique types (Form A, Form B, and Form C) of coverage for vehicle damage insurance data in Taiwan. We first identify the basic characteristics of policyholders and vehicles which are currently applied by insurers for property damage to vehicles. We further investigate some supplementary information, which requires small information cost for the insurers to obtain from the insureds. Our evidence shows that, for the crucial risk classification based on the current official rating formula, claim coefficient is a relatively critical factor for Form A, while claim coefficient and car age are important for Form B, and policyholder age is important for Form C. We also find that some additional information such as the claim record in the previous policy year provides useful information for risk classification. Our findings imply that the official rating formula may consider various risk factors among different types of coverage for damage to vehicles. In fact, insurers could improve claim prediction by adding unused information such as the claim record in the previous policy year or other factors. Thus, the deregulation of automobile insurance rating can benefit from an efficient risk classification.

並列關鍵字

Automobile insurance ； Risk classification ； Claim prediction

參考文獻

利菊秀，林志豪與劉純之(2010)，「風險分類與道德風險─汽車保險未限定駕駛人保單的損失評估」，《經濟論文》 , 38(4), 619–659 [Li, C.-S., C.-H. Lin, and C.-C. Liu (2010), “Risk Classification and Moral Hazard: Loss Evaluation of Automobile Insurance Policies without Driver Restriction,” Academia Economic Papers, 38(4), 619–659.]

利菊秀，彭盛昌與劉純之(2008)，「汽車保險不明車損的誘發性理賠─台灣的實證分析」，《經濟論文》, 36(3), 249–275 [Li, C.-S., S.-C. Peng, and C.-C. Liu (2008), “Induced Claims of Unknown Perils Coverage in Automobile Insurance: Empirical Evidence in Taiwan,” Academia Economic Papers, 36(3), 249–275.]

汪琪玲(2006a)，「台灣車體損失險契約中存在之訊息不對稱問題」，《台大管理論叢》，16(2), 161–186 [Wang, K. C. (2006a), “The Asymmetric Information Problems in the Automobile Comprehensive Insurance Contracts of Taiwan,” NTU Management Review, 16(2), 161–186.]

汪琪玲(2006b)，「台灣車體損失險上的動機效果」，《台大管理論叢》， , 17(1), 31–58 [Wang, K. C. (2006b), “The Incentive Effect in the Comprehensive Automobile Insurance of Taiwan,” NTU Management Review, 17(1), 31–58.]

詹芳書(2014)，「再探台灣車體保險之道德危險─以2005至2007年資料為證」，《經濟論文》, 42(2), 173–195 [Chan, L. F.-S. (2014), “A Revisit for the Moral Hazard of Comprehensive Auto Insurance in Taiwan: Evidence from 2005 to 2007,” Academia Economic Papers, 42(2), 173–195.]