夢想的代價：區域間人口遷移決策之研究

The Cost of a Dream: The Decision-Making of Interregional Migration

張慈佳(Tzu-Chia Chang) ； 胡海豐(Hai-Feng Hu)

《人文及社會科學集刊》 18卷3期 (2006/09) Pp. 417-441

https://doi.org/10.6350/JSSP.200609.0417

摘要

人們為什麼會在區域之間遷移呢？除了由過去相關文獻歸納出的區域間經濟機會差異、寧適性差異，以及個人屬性等影響因素外，本文認為，人們還可能基於非正式制度的因素－追尋夢想－而遷移。且夢想追尋變數與其他影響遷移的變數（如工資、地租等）之間存在抵換效果，本文稱之為「夢想折抵」，可用以衡量追尋夢想的代價。若將夢想追尋變數納入遷移決策中，將有助於解釋人口遷移與其影響變數之間的落差。本文利用行政院主計處所提供之民國91年的［國內遷徙調查」原始資料，並以高階職務比例做為夢想追尋的替代變數，在巢式羅吉特模型進行估計之後發現，夢想追尋變數對於遷徙機率有顯著的正向影響。此結果顯示，人們的遷移決策確實可能受到此類非正式制度中的文化特性所影響。此外，本文亦利用實證結果進行夢想折抵的估算，發現遷移者願意犧牲0.04%的相對工資，或是多負擔0.07%的相對地租，來換得功成名就的機會。

關鍵字

人口遷移 ； 夢想追尋 ； 夢想折抵

並列摘要

Why do people migrate across regions? The existing literature has singled out the following factors of importance: interregional economic opportunity differentials, amenity differentials, and individual characteristics. This paper indicates that the individual migration decisions are also affected by one informal institutional factor, that is, dream-pursuing. And there are some trade-offs between dream-pursuing and other variables of migration. Thus, we could calculate the costs of dream-pursuing, dubbed as dream discount. The relationships among migration and the other variables such as wages or rents would be clearer by introducing this dream-pursuing factor. Using the data from domestic migration survey conducted by the DGBAS of Taiwan in 2002, and treating the share of professional, technical, administrative, managerial, clerical and related workers as a proxy for dream-pursuing, the result of a nested logit model reveals that the dream-pursuing variable has a significantly positive effect on migration. Furthermore, we calculate dream discount based on the estimates derived from the nested logit model: migrants will accept 0.04% less relative wages, or offer 0.07% more relative rents, in order to get the chances for success.

並列關鍵字

migration ； dream-pursuing ； dream discount