貨幣、工資契約與小型開放經濟之景氣循環－台灣之實證研究

Taiwan's Business Cycles: Money and Wage Contracts in a Small Open Economy

張淑華(Shu-Hwa Chang)

《經濟論文叢刊》 32卷1期 (2004/03) Pp. 25-61

https://doi.org/10.6277/ter.2004.321.2

摘要

本文將貨幣引進跨期選擇模型，試圖從小型開放經濟的角度，來探討工資契約的名目僵固性是否有助於姐是台灣之景氣循環。結果發現，當通資契約體系同時考慮國內技術進步、貨幣干擾與實質世界利率衝擊，模型對於總體變數之變異性、共變性、儲蓄-投資相關係數與實質工資-工時相關係數都有頗佳的解釋能力。其中貨幣干擾的飲盡有助於改善，傳統RBC模型物價高度反循環以及實質工資-工時相關係數過高的異常現象，這項結論與Benassy(1995)相一致。再者，實質世界利率衝擊的引進，可進一步改善模型僅考慮國內技術與貨幣干擾之模擬動差。顯示在工資契約架構下，除了國內的技術進步與貨幣干擾，實質世界利率衝擊在解釋台灣的景氣循環上亦扮演重要的角色。

關鍵字

貨幣景氣循環 ； 小型開放經濟 ； 工資契約 ； 名目僵固性

並列摘要

This paper introduces money and wage contracts into a small open-economy intertemporal optimization model to explain Taiwan's business cycles. We attempt to explore the effects of the rigidity in nominal wages on business cycles in this model. It appears that the combination of money and predetermined nominal wages allows the model to successfully mimic the important features of Taiwan's business cycles, including volatilities and comovements of macroeconomic variables, the coefficient of hours worked and real wage as well as the coefficient of investments and savings. Furthermore, this paper concludes that technology shocks, monetary shocks and foreign interest rate shocks are the important sources of disturbances to Taiwan's business cycles.

並列關鍵字

monetary business cycles ； small open economy ； wage contracts ； nominal rigidity

參考文獻

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